Research Briefing
After a weak Q1 for the global economy, our baseline forecast is for a strong growth rebound in Q2, and...
Coronavirus Watch
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Research Briefing
Vaccines are the key to a safe and permanent transition to more normal conditions. But evidence from economies that already...
Research Briefing
Strong CPI figures in the US have intensified the debate about the inflation outlook, especially in the context of soaring...
Research Briefing
We think that recent inflation surprises are not evidence of a regime shift in price-setting behaviour. But the path for...
Research Briefing
Higher headline and core inflation in advanced economies is on the way in H2 as a result of factors including...
Research Briefing
A global shortage of semiconductors is the latest hiccup to disturb international supply-chains. In our view, though, the shortage is...
Research Briefing
US earnings growth continues to surprise to the upside, with more cyclical sectors leading the way in the Q1 earnings...
Research Briefing
Rising global Covid infections remain a key focus, but the recent surge is not automatically grounds for us to slash...
Research Briefing
Since the start of the pandemic, eurozone countries have been able to relax fiscal policy without worrying about the eurozone’s...
Research Briefing
Global trade is recovering so strongly that infrastructure seems unable to support it. As shipping costs reach new highs, reports...
Research Briefing
In an unwelcome development, global Covid case numbers are rising sharply again. Although this adds downside risk to our economic...
Research Briefing
CPI inflation is set to rise well above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target this spring and will likely surpass...
Research Briefing
Despite increasing numbers of new coronavirus cases globally, the possibility that more economies will enjoy both limited domestic restrictions and...
Research Briefing
Achieving collective immunity is a pre-condition for Latin American authorities to lift mobility restrictions permanently. We forecast that LatAm won’t...
Research Briefing
A run of encouraging business surveys and the apparent successful reopening of the Israeli economy suggest that upside risks to...
