Global | Coronavirus Watch: The limits of vaccines
Vaccines are the key to a safe and permanent transition to more normal conditions. But evidence from economies that already have implemented widespread vaccine rollouts confirms our long-held view that high vaccination rates will not be the sole factor.
Of the 20 economies that have delivered the swiftest rollouts, nine are small states with patchy data. Of the remaining 11, only five now have lower daily Covid cases than they did at the point they began vaccinations. On mortality rates, the equivalent figure is just six.
Lockdown stringency scores suggest an over-eagerness to lift restrictions has not necessarily been the reason for the worsening health situation in some of these economies. Also, the presence of several new variants in the UK, US, and Israel, which have recorded large falls in cases and deaths this year, suggests the spread of variants isn’t solely to blame.
Estimates that the first dose of the Sinopharm vaccine may be just 3% effective in preventing infection could explain why some economies have seen high vaccine take-up but surging cases. And new variants may have reduced the efficacy of some individual vaccines, also lowering immunity.
In all, the experiences of economies such as Israel provides grounds for optimism. But at the same time, developments in other economies show that a corner will not be turned simply by reaching a specific vaccine threshold.
Latin America Key Themes 2024 – Slower growth, but it’s not all bad news
Growth in most LatAm economies will be below consensus. Economic momentum has surprised to the upside through most of 2023, but the full effects of record global and domestic monetary tightening are yet to be seen.Find Out More
Easing financial conditions offer CRE some respite
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and the UK, reflecting investors' expectations that interest rates have peaked. This should aid the outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) on the margins, although the scale of past rate hikes, sluggish economies, and structural headwinds mean the sector still confronts challenging fundamentals.Find Out More