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Tokyo, Japan
Research Briefing | Jul 21, 2022

BoJ likely to look through widespread price jumps

BoJ likely to look through widespread price jumps

The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged at today’s meeting, maintaining current short- and long-term interest rates as we anticipated. The BoJ’s new strategy of offering daily, unlimited fixed-rate JGB purchases has been defending the +/-0.25% range for 10yr JGB, with lower purchases than previously.

The BoJ’s quarterly Outlook Report revised up the median CPI forecast to 2.3% from 1.9% for FY2022, but estimates for FY2023 at 1.4% and FY2024 at 1.3% remain short of the BoJ’s 2% target.

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Research Briefing | Jul 21, 2022

BoJ likely to look through widespread price jumps

BoJ likely to look through widespread price jumps

The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged at today’s meeting, maintaining current short- and long-term interest rates as we anticipated. The BoJ’s new strategy of offering daily, unlimited fixed-rate JGB purchases has been defending the +/-0.25% range for 10yr JGB, with lower purchases than previously.

The BoJ’s quarterly Outlook Report revised up the median CPI forecast to 2.3% from 1.9% for FY2022, but estimates for FY2023 at 1.4% and FY2024 at 1.3% remain short of the BoJ’s 2% target.

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Tokyo Japan
Research Briefing | Jun 17, 2022

BoJ sticks to its yield curve control strategy

BoJ sticks to its yield curve control strategy

The Bank of Japan stuck to its monetary policy at today’s (17 June) meeting, maintaining current short-term policy rates at -0.1% and long-term rates at around 0%.

The BoJ’s new strategy of offering daily, unlimited fixed-rate JGB purchases had been working to defend the +/-0.25% range for 10yr JGB, with purchases lower than previously. Earlier this week, however, the BoJ bought a larger amount, showing its determination to protect the range.

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Research Briefing | Jun 17, 2022

BoJ sticks to its yield curve control strategy

BoJ sticks to its yield curve control strategy

The Bank of Japan stuck to its monetary policy at today’s (17 June) meeting, maintaining current short-term policy rates at -0.1% and long-term rates at around 0%.

The BoJ’s new strategy of offering daily, unlimited fixed-rate JGB purchases had been working to defend the +/-0.25% range for 10yr JGB, with purchases lower than previously. Earlier this week, however, the BoJ bought a larger amount, showing its determination to protect the range.

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japan
Research Briefing | Jun 10, 2022

Japan’s PM Kishida shies away from fiscal consolidation in new Basic policy

Japan: Kishida shies away from fiscal consolidation in new Basic policyAfter tough negotiations within Japan’s ruling party, on June 7 the cabinet finally approved the Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform for 2022 (Basic policy 2022), an annual document describing the direction and priorities for economic policy. The key takeaway is that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is unlikely to tackle fiscal consolidation in the coming years. Instead, Kishida has shifted emphasis to increase spending on defence and various investment plans to promote growth, to be funded by debt. This will leave the BoJ with little choice but to maintain low interest rates to support fiscal funding.

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Research Briefing | Jun 10, 2022

Japan’s PM Kishida shies away from fiscal consolidation in new Basic policy

Japan: Kishida shies away from fiscal consolidation in new Basic policyAfter tough negotiations within Japan’s ruling party, on June 7 the cabinet finally approved the Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform for 2022 (Basic policy 2022), an annual document describing the direction and priorities for economic policy. The key takeaway is that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is unlikely to tackle fiscal consolidation in the coming years. Instead, Kishida has shifted emphasis to increase spending on defence and various investment plans to promote growth, to be funded by debt. This will leave the BoJ with little choice but to maintain low interest rates to support fiscal funding.

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night time light
Research Briefing | Jun 3, 2022

Estimating sub-national GDP from outer space

Estimating sub-national GDP from outer spaceSince the early 1990s, satellites orbiting the planet have been continuously recording the luminosity of the Earth’s surface at night. The resulting geospatial dataset contains the night light intensity of every square kilometre on the planet. These data provide great potential for economic analysis.

As part of our extensive analysis on regional economies across the world, we continue to explore novel approaches and innovative datasets to address gaps in traditional data sources. In this briefing, we discuss some potential uses for one such dataset: night-time light emissions measured from satellites.

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Research Briefing | Jun 3, 2022

Estimating sub-national GDP from outer space

Estimating sub-national GDP from outer spaceSince the early 1990s, satellites orbiting the planet have been continuously recording the luminosity of the Earth’s surface at night. The resulting geospatial dataset contains the night light intensity of every square kilometre on the planet. These data provide great potential for economic analysis.

As part of our extensive analysis on regional economies across the world, we continue to explore novel approaches and innovative datasets to address gaps in traditional data sources. In this briefing, we discuss some potential uses for one such dataset: night-time light emissions measured from satellites.

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Japanese yen
Research Briefing | May 20, 2022

For how long will Japan’s households support bonds and the yen?

Japan: For how long will households support bonds and the yen?Households’ financial surpluses sharply increased in 2020 and remained high in 2021 due to the Covid pandemic. Most of the surplus continued to go to cash and deposits, but there was a notable increase in funds going to investment trusts (with a large portion invested in foreign equities) in 2021.

Amid rising international yield differentials and a weakening yen, there is market chatter about whether this is the beginning of a structural shift from households’ risk-averse investment style?

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Research Briefing | May 20, 2022

For how long will Japan’s households support bonds and the yen?

Japan: For how long will households support bonds and the yen?Households’ financial surpluses sharply increased in 2020 and remained high in 2021 due to the Covid pandemic. Most of the surplus continued to go to cash and deposits, but there was a notable increase in funds going to investment trusts (with a large portion invested in foreign equities) in 2021.

Amid rising international yield differentials and a weakening yen, there is market chatter about whether this is the beginning of a structural shift from households’ risk-averse investment style?

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Tokyo Japan
Research Briefing | May 9, 2022

Why just 2% inflation is enough to eat into real incomes in Japan

Japan: Why just 2% inflation is enough to eat into real incomesLike in other major economies, we expect inflation in Japan to remain elevated in 2022  we project Japan’s inflation rate will hover around 2% y/y over the year. While relatively low by international standards, it’s the highest rate of inflation Japan has seen since 2008, excluding the short bursts triggered by hikes in the consumption tax.

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Research Briefing | May 9, 2022

Why just 2% inflation is enough to eat into real incomes in Japan

Japan: Why just 2% inflation is enough to eat into real incomesLike in other major economies, we expect inflation in Japan to remain elevated in 2022  we project Japan’s inflation rate will hover around 2% y/y over the year. While relatively low by international standards, it’s the highest rate of inflation Japan has seen since 2008, excluding the short bursts triggered by hikes in the consumption tax.

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Tokyo
Research Briefing | Apr 28, 2022

BoJ holds firm, despite weak yen’s negative for economy

Research Briefing | Japan

As expected, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left monetary policy unchanged at today’s (28th April 2022) meeting, maintaining current short- and long-term interest rates.

Amid a sharp depreciation of the yen, now at a 20-year low against the US dollar, financial markets have focused on the BoJ’s possible adjustment to its monetary easing framework to mitigate pressures on the yen from the widening interest rate differentials.

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Research Briefing | Apr 28, 2022

BoJ holds firm, despite weak yen’s negative for economy

Research Briefing | Japan

As expected, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left monetary policy unchanged at today’s (28th April 2022) meeting, maintaining current short- and long-term interest rates.

Amid a sharp depreciation of the yen, now at a 20-year low against the US dollar, financial markets have focused on the BoJ’s possible adjustment to its monetary easing framework to mitigate pressures on the yen from the widening interest rate differentials.

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financial market
Research Briefing | Apr 25, 2022

Portfolio diversification requires a procyclical inflation regime

Macro Strategy Themes

We think the positive correlation between bond and equity returns will last as long as positive inflation shocks are cost-push (vs demand pull), as a negative stock-bond correlation needs a weakly procyclical inflation regime.

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Research Briefing | Apr 25, 2022

Portfolio diversification requires a procyclical inflation regime

Macro Strategy Themes

We think the positive correlation between bond and equity returns will last as long as positive inflation shocks are cost-push (vs demand pull), as a negative stock-bond correlation needs a weakly procyclical inflation regime.

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US Long Beach
Research Briefing | Apr 11, 2022

More pain for US supply chains

research-briefing-US

Supply chain conditions deteriorated for a second straight month in March. Pressures increased on the price and transportation fronts as the war in Ukraine pushed key energy and non-energy commodity prices higher and aggravated logistics logjams. Plunging Covid cases in the US kept demand resilient which, alongside constrained supply, increased stress on the activity front. On the bright side, inventory dynamics improved and labor strains moderated.

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Research Briefing | Apr 11, 2022

More pain for US supply chains

research-briefing-US

Supply chain conditions deteriorated for a second straight month in March. Pressures increased on the price and transportation fronts as the war in Ukraine pushed key energy and non-energy commodity prices higher and aggravated logistics logjams. Plunging Covid cases in the US kept demand resilient which, alongside constrained supply, increased stress on the activity front. On the bright side, inventory dynamics improved and labor strains moderated.

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APAC | Large variations across cities in medium term employment growth
Research Briefing | Apr 4, 2022

Large variations across APAC cities in medium term employment growth

APAC | Large variations across cities in medium term employment growth

In 2022 Asia Pacific cities will continue their economic recoveries, despite several challenges including the global impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But several major Asia Pacific cities including Taipei, Seoul, and Hong Kong will face medium term constraints on employment growth due to ageing populations. Other cities such as Shenzhen, Delhi, and Sydney will enjoy stronger employment growth, led by service sector jobs.

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Research Briefing | Apr 4, 2022

Large variations across APAC cities in medium term employment growth

APAC | Large variations across cities in medium term employment growth

In 2022 Asia Pacific cities will continue their economic recoveries, despite several challenges including the global impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But several major Asia Pacific cities including Taipei, Seoul, and Hong Kong will face medium term constraints on employment growth due to ageing populations. Other cities such as Shenzhen, Delhi, and Sydney will enjoy stronger employment growth, led by service sector jobs.

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Japan
Research Briefing | Mar 31, 2022

Japan’s export will grow together with global trade

Japan | Export will grow together with global trade

Japan’s export share has remained stable at slightly below 5% since the mid-2010s, except for a brief swing before and after the global financial crisis. The fluctuation is best understood in the context of the adjustment by manufacturers to the increase in overseas production and shift towards higher value-added exports, as other Asian economies emerged as “Factory Asia.”

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Research Briefing | Mar 31, 2022

Japan’s export will grow together with global trade

Japan | Export will grow together with global trade

Japan’s export share has remained stable at slightly below 5% since the mid-2010s, except for a brief swing before and after the global financial crisis. The fluctuation is best understood in the context of the adjustment by manufacturers to the increase in overseas production and shift towards higher value-added exports, as other Asian economies emerged as “Factory Asia.”

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Tokyo, Japan

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is being felt throughout the global economy, but few places are as exposed to its impact as the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. In addition to surging energy prices, CEE economies will be hurt by renewed supply shortages in manufacturing, loss of access to Russian markets, currency depreciation, and the refugee crisis. 

US Recovery Tracker offers optimism despite several headwinds

The US Recovery Tracker is back within reach of its pre-Covid baseline, rising 0.4ppts to 99.8 in the week ended March 4 – its highest level since mid-December. Continued improvement in health conditions drove the increase, and mobility rose above its pre-virus level. 

South Korea flag

Back to Resource Hub Research Briefing | Mar 11, 2022 South Korea: Victory for Yoon signals domestic and foreign policy shifts Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative People Power Party was elected as South Korea’s new president on March 9 in a closely contested presidential race. Yoon will serve a single presidential term of five years, … Read more

commercial property

The impact of a “limited” incursion by Russia into Ukraine would deal an unwelcome blow to the European economy via higher inflation squeezing real incomes, but it would be far from a knockout.

trade port
Research Briefing | Feb 28, 2022

Impact of falling terms of trade on Japan’s growth and deflation

report - Japan - Impact of falling terms of trade on growth and deflationJapan’s terms of trade, which saw steady deterioration until the mid 2010s, have since trended sideways, albeit with substantial fluctuation. The decline reflects Japan’s extreme dependence on imported resources and a drop in export prices amid intensifying global competition.

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Research Briefing | Feb 28, 2022

Impact of falling terms of trade on Japan’s growth and deflation

report - Japan - Impact of falling terms of trade on growth and deflationJapan’s terms of trade, which saw steady deterioration until the mid 2010s, have since trended sideways, albeit with substantial fluctuation. The decline reflects Japan’s extreme dependence on imported resources and a drop in export prices amid intensifying global competition.

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United Kingdom map
Research Briefing | Feb 17, 2022

The UK Levelling Up White Paper is welcome but changes little

The UK Levelling Up White Paper is welcome but changes littleThe Levelling Up White Paper contains nothing to cause us to revise our forecasts for the UK’s various nations and regions, let alone the UK as a whole. It contains many fine sentiments but little that is new or significant. We forecast that southern regions will outpace all others, 2022-30.

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Research Briefing | Feb 17, 2022

The UK Levelling Up White Paper is welcome but changes little

The UK Levelling Up White Paper is welcome but changes littleThe Levelling Up White Paper contains nothing to cause us to revise our forecasts for the UK’s various nations and regions, let alone the UK as a whole. It contains many fine sentiments but little that is new or significant. We forecast that southern regions will outpace all others, 2022-30.

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Nordic Macro Service - Sweden

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Symphony

You may be interested in Symphony: Data Intelligence Platform .m14-hero-698c851b0bf1b.m14 { background-color: #002b5c; /* $oe–blue */ padding-top: 60px; padding-bottom: 0px; position: relative; margin-bottom: 90px; display: block; width: 100%; }… Find Out More → Tourism Forecasts and Scenarios Track, analyse, and react to macro events and future trends for the European region. Find Out More → … Read more