Research Briefing | Mar 2, 2022

Russia’s invasion will trim real estate returns

Report - Russia’s invasion will trim real estate returns

Our latest baseline forecast incorporates the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has led us to downgrade our real estate forecasts, albeit relatively moderately owing to the mainly indirect transmission channels.

What you will learn:

  • Differences in regional performance have widened, with returns in Asia Pacific and North America less affected, whereas the impact on Europe will be greatest. Our forecast for eurozone all-property total returns is now 2.8% lower by end 2025 than under the previous baseline.
  • The impact within Europe varies, depending on trade and energy market links – we lowered returns in Germany, France, and CEE by more than in the UK and Nordics.
  • The key transmission channel for commercial real estate, just as it is for the broader economy, is through inflation via squeezed real incomes lowering demand and raising yields. 

Back to Resource Hub

Related services

African and Middle Eastern Cities Forecasts


African and Middle Eastern Cities Forecasts

Comprehensive data and forecasts for major cities in Africa and the Middle East.

Find Out More
Small - Africa Forecasting Service


Africa Forecasting Service

Comprehensive analysis of immediate and long-term economic and political prospects to inform investment strategies, expansion and African operations through forecasts and commentary by country, industry, and city.

Find Out More