The story this year remains global divergence. We are above consensus with our forecasts for the US, China and some other APAC economies, while we’re a touch more pessimistic elsewhere.
Sally Li
AI spending boosted US GDP by 0.4ppts in 2025 and we expect it to add a similar amount this year.
The Supreme court ruling on tariffs lowers the effective tariff rate down sharply. In this report, we discuss its implications.
Demographic trends imply emerging market savings rates are approaching multi-decade peaks and will only fall marginally over the next few decades.
While we mostly agree with Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s argument that the economy is in a supply-side expansion akin to the new economy period under former Chair Alan Greenspan, we think the implications for monetary policy are different today.
A gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics is estimated to be worth around US$1,938, almost three times its value at the previous Winter Games.
Frontier sectors are central to the UK’s Industrial Strategy. Our latest research reveals where growth is concentrating, and what leaders can do next.
In this blog, we address the key questions raised on economic growth, AI adoption, trade policy during our Global Economic Outlook Conference in London.
Despite an environment of rising protectionism and political volatility, the global economy has proved remarkably resilient.
The odds of our baseline view of most US tariffs on Canada and Mexico being removed by mid-2026 are decreasing. In this report, we analyze plausible USMCA scenarios.
A 10% blanket tariff rising to 25% in June, coupled with tit-for-tat retaliation, would cause EU manufacturing value-added output to stagnate through the end of 2026.
We expect economic growth to strengthen in the Gulf Cooperation Council region in 2026. In contrast, growth in Turkey will slow to 3%.
As progress on climate change mitigation continues and low-carbon technologies are heading into 2026 with strong momentum, significant headwinds await.
In this blog, we examine the economic consequences of a 1-in-200-year flood event in London and across the UK.
Canada’s 2026 outlook hinges on USMCA renegotiation. If trade risks ease, the year could mark an inflection point for investment and growth.
In this blog, we discuss the implications of the US–Venezuela conflict for both countries’ economies, as well as for global oil markets.
Trade restrictions, increasing competition in higher value-added industries, and elevated AI investment will push cities onto different growth paths.
We forecast construction activity will rebound in 2026, underpinned by four key themes that will define the year.
Even under our strong upside scenarios for oil and migrant return, Venezuela’s GDP returns to just 50% below the 2013 peak in ten years.
Australia faces a series of tussles for 2026 – inflation versus the RBA, public versus private demand and homeowners versus everyone else.
