The US-Israel war with Iran reinforces a long-standing narrative but rewrites a few key chapters.
Sally Li
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More than two-thirds of commodities are expected to record price increases in 2026 as a result of the Iran war and the broader geopolitical shock.
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We’ve modelled a “Prolonged Iran War” scenario using our Global Economic Model — and the results are sobering.
We now expect world GDP growth of 2.6% this year, down from our forecast of 3.0% in February.
We have substantially upgraded our oil price forecasts, expecting Brent to average $114 per barrel in Q2.
The Iran conflict’s economic fallout shouldn’t curb Eurozone consumer spending much, but the impact could linger.
European energy-intensive industries face structurally higher energy prices than competitors in the US and China. The resulting energy-cost challenges must be addressed.
Is the middle-class growth story a thing of the past and if not, where are the opportunities?
If global oil prices averaged around $140 per barrel (pb) for two months, it would be enough to push parts of the global economy into a mild recession.
While the fundamentals for global industrial growth have remained relatively constant, downside risks have notably risen.
The chemicals and transport sectors are likely to be among the biggest losers from the Iran war, with Europe’s chemicals industry particularly exposed.
