Five differences and one similarity of world economies in 2026

The story this year remains global divergence. We are above consensus with our forecasts for the US, China and some other APAC economies, while we’re a touch more pessimistic elsewhere.

The bifurcation in the global economy this year is attributed to several factors, including AI- and non-AI-related equipment spending, exposure to trade, the monetary and fiscal policy impulse, productivity, and the wealth effect, to a lesser degree.

Yet amid this bifurcation, there is one common thread – mediocre job growth will be a feature across the global economy this year.

What you will learn in this report:

• Artificial intelligence will remain a solid support to US GDP growth in 2026.
• US and Chinese strength won’t boost all other economies. Reliance on trade will be an issue for some.
• Monetary and fiscal policy will help some economies while hurting others.
• Wealth effects help a little less. The deviation in growth between the US and other developed economies would be more noticeable if the boost from the wealth effect was set to fade.
• Productivity will chart the path forward. Productivity growth in the US has noticeably outpaced other developed economies and this gap is expected to widen.
• Labor pains are broadly felt.