We estimate inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline 11-27% y-y in 2026 as a result of the conflict.
Sally Li
The oil market is well placed to manage the impact from Iran. We now assume oil supply is disrupted by an average of 4 mbpd over the next quarter.
We expect US retail total returns to surpass their pre-pandemic trend over the next five years, the lone sector to do so.
The macro implications of replacing US IEEPA tariffs with a global 15% tariff are minor at best, according to our simulations.
Metals are expected to outperform in 2026, while energy and agricultural commodities are set to weaken on average.
The story this year remains global divergence. We are above consensus with our forecasts for the US, China and some other APAC economies, while we’re a touch more pessimistic elsewhere.
AI spending boosted US GDP by 0.4ppts in 2025 and we expect it to add a similar amount this year.
The Supreme court ruling on tariffs lowers the effective tariff rate down sharply. In this report, we discuss its implications.
Demographic trends imply emerging market savings rates are approaching multi-decade peaks and will only fall marginally over the next few decades.
While we mostly agree with Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s argument that the economy is in a supply-side expansion akin to the new economy period under former Chair Alan Greenspan, we think the implications for monetary policy are different today.
A gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics is estimated to be worth around US$1,938, almost three times its value at the previous Winter Games.
Frontier sectors are central to the UK’s Industrial Strategy. Our latest research reveals where growth is concentrating, and what leaders can do next.
In this blog, we address the key questions raised on economic growth, AI adoption, trade policy during our Global Economic Outlook Conference in London.
Despite an environment of rising protectionism and political volatility, the global economy has proved remarkably resilient.
The odds of our baseline view of most US tariffs on Canada and Mexico being removed by mid-2026 are decreasing. In this report, we analyze plausible USMCA scenarios.
A 10% blanket tariff rising to 25% in June, coupled with tit-for-tat retaliation, would cause EU manufacturing value-added output to stagnate through the end of 2026.
We expect economic growth to strengthen in the Gulf Cooperation Council region in 2026. In contrast, growth in Turkey will slow to 3%.
As progress on climate change mitigation continues and low-carbon technologies are heading into 2026 with strong momentum, significant headwinds await.
In this blog, we examine the economic consequences of a 1-in-200-year flood event in London and across the UK.
Canada’s 2026 outlook hinges on USMCA renegotiation. If trade risks ease, the year could mark an inflection point for investment and growth.
