Jiawen Cui 
Our updated analysis shows that the risk of ‘Japanification’ – a lengthy period of low growth and low inflation or deflation – has increased in Asian economies like China but declined in Europe. However, some of the changes may not be permanent. Economies are still settling down after the upheavals of the pandemic and some key underlying drivers of Japanification remain in place.
Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is a symbolic step back from global climate cooperation. However, we don’t think the global transition will grind to a halt because the economics remain favourable and climate policies are more entrenched than before. Rather, what the US does at home will have a greater impact on climate.
US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an additional 10% tariff on imports from China was in line with our baseline expectation. But the immediacy of implementation, the blanket style of tariffs, and the inclusion of stronger language around retaliation in policy documents still add significant uncertainty to our forecasts.
This report examines Grab’s contributions to Singapore’s economy, quantifying its economic footprint and highlighting the platform’s contribution to the digital economy, and the socioeconomic opportunities it creates for gig workers and small businesses.
This study highlights how Klook’s innovative travel booking platform is contributing to the tourism economy in Asia Pacific.
The incoming Trump administration’s trade policies will have significant impacts on China’s sectoral outlook. There will be a small near-term boost to Chinese output prior to the introduction of tariffs owing to a frontloading of orders. However, the long-term impact will be overwhelmingly negative on Chinese industrial activity.
This report examines the economic impact of SHEIN on the EU economy, focusing on its operations in three key markets: France, Italy, and Poland.
We think the impact of the stimulus announced by China on the prices of commodities exported by Africa will be limited. What matters more is China’s changing long-term strategy on the continent.
US tariffs under a Trump presidency and a Republican-led Congress are a major concern for China. However, we expect additional US tariffs wouldn’t be implemented until as late as 2026 and the effects could be mitigated early on by expansionary fiscal policy in the US.
In response to the results of the US election we’ve adopted our ‘limited Trump’ scenario as our baseline view for now. The direct impact on global growth is likely to be limited in the near term, but masks major implications for trade and the composition of growth, and for financial markets.
India has benefited from US trade rerouting away from China since 2018, albeit to a much lesser extent than some of its Asian peers. India’s export strengths largely lie in sectors of the ‘old economy’, where growth potential is limited and competition is fierce. We estimate that the US-China trade war so far has improved India’s export prospects only to a limited extent, dashing hopes that an escalation of the conflict could boost the lagging manufacturing sector.
Recent research from Oxford Economics in collaboration with SGTech shows that digital trust, once considered the purview of IT and cybersecurity, now stretches beyond those traditional roles to all parts of an organization, requiring a highly trained workforce that has both technical and more general digital business skills.
This report presents an assessment of international spirits’ contribution to the Hong Kong economy. It explores how rebalancing the tax structure on spirits towards a specific tax system could potentially provide a more effective tax policy instrument and enable Hong Kong to benefit further from the sector’s economic contribution.
Based on our analysis, most investors are likely to allocate heavily towards industrial and away from offices over the next five years.
In collaboration with SGTech, The Digital Trust Workforce: Global Edition consolidates insights from our survey and expert conversations, providing actionable steps for organisations hoping to close the digital trust skills gap and leverage digital trust.
Over the next five years, India is forecast to be the fastest growing major economy across Asia-Pacific. We expect India’s real GDP to grow on average 6.7% per year between 2024 and 2028. In general, we expect the Southern states to lead GDP growth rankings, while the Central, Eastern, and Northeastern states are anticipated to lag.
Hybrid working has already had a big impact on office markets, and combining homeworking trends with our forecasts for office-based employment can give insights into future office demand.
Adverse demographic trends imply that the only alternative for sustaining China’s longer-term growth momentum would be to sharply accelerate productivity growth. The timely emergence of generative AI could partially close this gap.
In our recent real estate webinar, we showed that prices started to turn a corner. We predict industrial and retail will record the smallest value declines this year, and over the next five years, apartment and industrial are expected to record the strongest value growth on average. Both sectors are expected to reach their peak values of 2022 this decade.
Major cities in the emerging global south are becoming more specialised in office-using sectors, which currently account for more than 30% of total city GDP across the world, generating more than $15 trillion in 2024, and employing over 165 million jobs.
