Navigating Economic Uncertainty in 2024

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Unlock the power of economics, to find the opportunities for growth in 2024

Welcome to a world where global decisions ripple across borders, shaping interconnected destinies. In the midst of information overload, finding the essential factors for organisational success can feel like searching for a needle in a haystack. This is the challenge businesses face, navigating a dynamic environment where deciphering macroeconomic shifts is vital.

We believe in the power of economics to uncover hidden risks, untapped opportunities, and diverse paths to success. Our mission is to help you unlock this potential, revealing growth opportunities in 2024 and beyond, by providing the economic insights and data that will shape your future success

Key themes for 2024 and beyond

Unlock the power of economics with the latest research.

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Dealing with the inflation hangover | Conference Presentation

In this presentation deck, Innes McFee, Chief Global Economist, explains how the outlook for the year is cautiously optimistic. Over the last year, inflation has come down as we expected with the economy holding up relatively better in the second half of the year.

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A mid-year transition from recession to recovery | Canada Up Close

The Canadian economy will begin 2024 still mired in recession as the lagged impact of higher interest rates continues to filter through. In our first Canada Up Close video, Tony Stillo, Director of Canada Economics, examines four key themes that will shape the economy’s performance in 2024.

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global cities

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Cities Key themes 2024 – cyclical swings, structural shifts

Growth in the main economic indicators (GDP, employment, and consumer spending) is likely to be weaker in 2024 than in 2023 for most cities around the world. And a recurring theme for debate will be where cities sit within their national economic cycles.

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Canada Key themes 2024 − A mid-year shift from recession to growth

The Canadian economy will begin 2024 still mired in recession as the lagged impact of higher interest rates continues to filter through. However, we expect a modest recovery in the latter half of 2024 as the Bank of Canada begins to cut interest rates, disinflation continues, and global growth improves.

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Commodities Key Themes 2024 – Another year of price weakness for metals

We expect another year of industrial metal price weakness in 2024 and are generally below consensus. Metal demand will remain weak in H1 while supply continues to increase. However, metal prices will gradually increase later in the year and beyond as demand recovers.

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Which countries are likely to see the fastest growth? 

Get the latest insights to help determine which countries are likely to see the fastest growth into 2024 and beyond.  

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Which Countries Will Realise the Most Economic Growth in 2024 and beyond?

A palpably cautious mood has settled over central banks, economists, and corporate leaders. In many countries, the rise in interest rates – and thus borrowing costs – is slowing, sparking optimism that the worst of the global inflationary surge has passed. Still, global volatility is causing experts concern.

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covid economy

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Economies with pre-existing conditions suffer bigger Covid scars

We project the distribution of long-term economic pain inflicted by Covid will be similar to humans in the sense that those with pre-existing conditions will end up suffering the most.

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Long-term forward rates have risen too far

We've recently revised up our forecasts for US and UK bond yields in the long term by 50 basis points; we've also revised up Japanese and German yields by 20 to 25 basis points.

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M Asia leads the pack with highest convergence potential

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EM Asia leads the pack with highest convergence potential

Based on the middle-income trap literature, we developed a long-term growth indicator that used 33 metrics to assess risks to EM economies' long-term growth potential.

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AI and productivity growth – a note of caution

Some observers are predicting a very big uplift to global productivity and economic growth from developments in artificial intelligence. But our historical analysis of productivity growth and technological change suggests that while AI could be transformative for some sectors, it's unlikely to shift world growth on to a markedly higher path.

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After the post-pandemic slump, a steady climb back for Latin America

We expect Latin America's six largest countries' combined GDP to expand 0.8% next year, down from our 1.8% forecast for 2023 and the consensus' 1.4%. The dissipation of idiosyncratic shocks and less restrictive domestic policies should support a broad regional recovery in 2024 from the recessions LatAm's major economies are in or about to enter.

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Which cities are likely to see the fastest growth? 

Get the latest insights to help determine which cities and metro areas will likely see the fastest growth into 2024 and beyond.

Europe

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A benign growth outlook for European cities, with some bright spots

GDP growth in Europe's major cities will be modest in 2024, with nearly half seeing a slowdown from 2023. However, given the backdrop of weakening activity across European countries, a loss of momentum is hardly surprising. And even with this difficult setting we still expect city GDP growth to, on average, outpace national economies.

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Most US metros to see slower growth in 2024

Most metros have had steady GDP and job growth in 2023 but will start to see quarterly declines in Q4 or Q1 2024. All of the top 50 metros are forecast to see a slowdown in GDP growth in 2024, driven by lower finance and real estate GDP more than by other sectors.

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Hangzhou China city landscape

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New economy cities defy some of the GDP slowdown in China

Recent months have been tough for China and its major cities. While year-on-year growth rates picked up in Q2, they were below expectations and, as a result, we have downgraded many of our estimates of GDP growth in 2023. However, our forecasts show significant divergences, with as many cities underperforming our national GDP growth expectations as overperforming.

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Largest Canadian metros appear more resilient to the recession

The year ahead will be tough for Canadian metros, with a range of pressures imposed upon them. However, there are glimmers of light, and we expect GDP to rise in six of the 10 major metros. Calgary is expected to grow the fastest, while Montreal will outperform both Vancouver and Toronto.

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Bandra Traffic Mumbai City, India

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Indian cities’ growth will outpace rest of APAC in 2024

Economic growth will generally remain subdued across major APAC cities in 2024. Nevertheless, we think that some cities will stand out for their better performance. These cities are either located in an economically dynamic country, as is the case for Bengaluru and Hyderabad, or will benefit from somewhat better prospects for their manufacturing sectors, for instance Singapore.

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Essential Solutions

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Detailed historical and forecast data to 2040 for a broad range of economic and demographic indicators for global 900 cities. By-city economic forecasts for 8,000 cities.

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Provides a rigorous, consistent structure for forecasting and testing scenarios. The Global Economic Model (GEM) covers 85 countries and can be used to address questions on a wide range of economic topics. The model forms the foundation of all of our country, industry, and city forecasts. Advanced software lets you build your own scenarios quickly, export data sets, and view outputs in dashboards, heat maps, or charts. The model can be customised to reflect your organisation’s strategic challenges.​

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