Navigating Economic Uncertainty

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Unlock the power of economics, to find the opportunities for growth in 2024

Welcome to a world where global decisions ripple across borders, shaping interconnected destinies. In the midst of information overload, finding the essential factors for organisational success can feel like searching for a needle in a haystack. This is the challenge businesses face, navigating a dynamic environment where deciphering macroeconomic shifts is vital.

We believe in the power of economics to uncover hidden risks, untapped opportunities, and diverse paths to success. Our mission is to help you unlock this potential, revealing growth opportunities in 2024 and beyond, by providing the economic insights and data that will shape your future success.

Key themes for 2024 and beyond

Unlock the power of economics with the latest research.

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Global Key Themes for 2024 | Beyond the Headlines

It's widely believed that global growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and that advanced economy central banks will begin to pivot in H2. In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, join Ben May, Director, Macro Forecasting and Analysis, as he outlines the three key themes which we believe will have an important bearing on the precise path the economy and financial markets will take next year.

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Global Key Themes 2024: Few opportunities in a gloomy landscape

Global GDP growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and central banks will begin to pivot in H2 – at least that seems to be the broad agreement among markets, policymakers, and forecasters. For the most part, we concur and have identified three key themes that will be key to the precise path that economies and financial markets take next year.

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Middle East escalation would pose mild recession risk

Our latest scenario analysis suggests that the global economy would falter in the event of an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war that severely disrupted the global supply of oil. But assuming the disruption was not protracted, we think any global recession would be mild and fleeting even if oil prices reached $150pb.

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Global EM Key themes for 2024 – disinflation prevails

Global economic travails will present a challenge for EMs next year, but we see EM disinflation progressing more smoothly than 2023. Covid and other legacies will still trouble several EMs; we outline our biggest concerns and where we see the greatest opportunities.

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Key trends for Africa in 2022

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Watchlist 2024 – Coups, devaluations, and the birth of a sector

Next year will see some countries breaching breaking points. It will also see the birth of a new industry and somewhat of a renaissance in East Africa’s economic anchor. In this webinar we discuss our watchlist for 2024. Our calls include major devaluations in Ethiopia & Egypt, and the highest likelihood in decades of coups d’état in Cameroon & Tunisia. We will give our expectations regarding South Africa’s presidential elections, and discuss two decidedly positive expectations: the inception of Africa’s green hydrogen sector and Kenya getting its economic groove back.

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Which countries are likely to see fastest growth?  

Get the latest insights to help determine which countries are likely to see the fastest growth into 2024 and beyond.

covid economy

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Economies with pre-existing conditions suffer bigger Covid scars

We project the distribution of long-term economic pain inflicted by Covid will be similar to humans in the sense that those with pre-existing conditions will end up suffering the most.

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Long-term forward rates have risen too far

We've recently revised up our forecasts for US and UK bond yields in the long term by 50 basis points; we've also revised up Japanese and German yields by 20 to 25 basis points.

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M Asia leads the pack with highest convergence potential

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EM Asia leads the pack with highest convergence potential

Based on the middle-income trap literature, we developed a long-term growth indicator that used 33 metrics to assess risks to EM economies' long-term growth potential.

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AI and productivity growth – a note of caution

Some observers are predicting a very big uplift to global productivity and economic growth from developments in artificial intelligence. But our historical analysis of productivity growth and technological change suggests that while AI could be transformative for some sectors, it's unlikely to shift world growth on to a markedly higher path.

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After the post-pandemic slump, a steady climb back for Latin America

We expect Latin America's six largest countries' combined GDP to expand 0.8% next year, down from our 1.8% forecast for 2023 and the consensus' 1.4%. The dissipation of idiosyncratic shocks and less restrictive domestic policies should support a broad regional recovery in 2024 from the recessions LatAm's major economies are in or about to enter.

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Which cities are likely to see fastest growth?  

Get the latest insights to help determine which cities and metro areas are likely to see the fastest growth into 2024 and beyond.

Europe

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A benign growth outlook for European cities, with some bright spots

GDP growth in Europe's major cities will be modest in 2024, with nearly half seeing a slowdown from 2023. However, given the backdrop of weakening activity across European countries, a loss of momentum is hardly surprising. And even with this difficult setting we still expect city GDP growth to, on average, outpace national economies.

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Most US metros to see slower growth in 2024

Most metros have had steady GDP and job growth in 2023 but will start to see quarterly declines in Q4 or Q1 2024. All of the top 50 metros are forecast to see a slowdown in GDP growth in 2024, driven by lower finance and real estate GDP more than by other sectors.

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Hangzhou China city landscape

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New economy cities defy some of the GDP slowdown in China

Recent months have been tough for China and its major cities. While year-on-year growth rates picked up in Q2, they were below expectations and, as a result, we have downgraded many of our estimates of GDP growth in 2023. However, our forecasts show significant divergences, with as many cities underperforming our national GDP growth expectations as overperforming.

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Largest Canadian metros appear more resilient to the recession

The year ahead will be tough for Canadian metros, with a range of pressures imposed upon them. However, there are glimmers of light, and we expect GDP to rise in six of the 10 major metros. Calgary is expected to grow the fastest, while Montreal will outperform both Vancouver and Toronto.

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Bandra Traffic Mumbai City, India

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Indian cities’ growth will outpace rest of APAC in 2024

Economic growth will generally remain subdued across major APAC cities in 2024. Nevertheless, we think that some cities will stand out for their better performance. These cities are either located in an economically dynamic country, as is the case for Bengaluru and Hyderabad, or will benefit from somewhat better prospects for their manufacturing sectors, for instance Singapore.

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Essential Solutions

Our comprehensive economic product solutions offer a strategic advantage by providing real-time monitoring of commodity prices, precise assessment of financing costs, and insightful foresight into economic trends, including recessions, inflation, and interest rates. Moreover, our tools empower you to understand the direct repercussions of policy changes, enabling informed decision-making and risk management in an ever-evolving economic landscape.

Global Macro Service

Gain macro-economic insights with the global briefings and analysis on economic and market shifts. Utilise our world-class macro monitoring tools to evaluate macro events' impact on your strategy in 200+ countries.

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Global and Regional Cities Services

Detailed historical and forecast data to 2040 for a broad range of economic and demographic indicators for global 900 cities. By-city economic forecasts for 8,000 cities.

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Global Industry Service

Quantitative analysis of demand forecasts for key industries and the impact of macro events for over 100+ sectors in 77 countries and Eurozone.

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Global City Travel

Reliable, timely, and detailed international travel intelligence for over 300 cities around the world. The proprietary database helps you quickly benchmark competitive cities and track market performance over time to inform global market strategies.

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Global Scenarios Service

Identifies key risks and their implications on the world economy, different regions and individual countries. Understanding the potential impact on indicators such as GDP, growth, employment and commodities – and how they are likely to evolve over five years – enables clients to make better decisions when planning investments, locations, new markets and products and proactively manage supply chain resilience.

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Global Economic Model

Provides a rigorous, consistent structure for forecasting and testing scenarios. The Global Economic Model (GEM) covers 85 countries and can be used to address questions on a wide range of economic topics. The model forms the foundation of all of our country, industry, and city forecasts. Advanced software lets you build your own scenarios quickly, export data sets, and view outputs in dashboards, heat maps, or charts. The model can be customised to reflect your organisation’s strategic challenges.​

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Economic and Political Risk Evaluator

Political, regulatory, and operational analysis of political events and their impact on political and operational issues in 224 countries and territories.

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Global Risk Service

Identify key risks and their implications on the world economy, regions and countries. Access a baseline scenario and multiple five-year scenarios in a single quarterly report. Understand the potential impact on indicators such as GDP, growth, employment and commodities – and how they are likely to evolve over five years – so you can make better decisions when planning investments, locations, new markets and products and proactively manage supply chain resilience.

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