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Events and Webinars

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
US Key Themes for 2024

with Innes McFee and Michael Pearce | Online | December 4, 2023

Our final US webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a modest acceleration in GDP growth in H2. Inflation will continue to fall but at a much more gradual pace than in 2023 driven by a gradual loosening of labor market conditions, prompting the Fed to start easing policy towards the end of the year. Beyond these headlines three themes will be key to shaping the economy in 2024: fiscal policy as a key driver of the outlook; credit and political uncertainty; and the economy will remain highly desynchronized.

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Webinar
Global: Key themes 2024 – Few opportunities in a gloomy landscape

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | December 1, 2023

Global GDP growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and central banks will begin to pivot in H2 – at least that seems to be the broad agreement among markets, policymakers, and forecasters. For the most part, we concur and have identified three key themes that we think will be key to the precise path that economies and financial markets take next year: Risks to the consensus growth view are skewed to the downside. Inflation trends will diverge more. Despite the gloom, some bright spots will emerge In this webinar we explore these three key themes in more detail

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Webinar
Global Valve and Actuator

with Kiran Ahmed and Jeremy Leonard | Online | November 30, 2023

In partnership with the British Valve and Actuator Association, the latest edition of our annual Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook highlights that across most markets, fundamental demand conditions for valve and actuator consumption remain soft. Tight monetary policy will continue to weigh on economic activity, limiting activity in valve end-use markets and investment spending more generally.

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Webinar
UK Key Themes for 2024

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | November 29, 2023

Our final UK webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. Though the inflation shock is fading, consumers will remain under pressure as the impact of tighter monetary policy continues to emerge. Companies will also feel the pinch, with high debt servicing costs the latest in a series of problems they’ve had to deal with. But it’s not all bad news. The labour market appears to be headed for a relatively soft landing. And with a general election fast approaching, we’ll discuss whether the fiscal policy landscape is likely to change.

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Webinar
Watchlist 2024 – Coups, devaluations, and the birth of a sector

with Jacques Nel and Pieter Scribante | Online | November 28, 2023

Next year will see some countries breaching breaking points. It will also see the birth of a new industry and somewhat of a renaissance in East Africa’s economic anchor. In this webinar we discuss our watchlist for 2024. Our calls include major devaluations in Ethiopia & Egypt, and the highest likelihood in decades of coups d’état in Cameroon & Tunisia. We will give our expectations regarding South Africa’s presidential elections, and discuss two decidedly positive expectations: the inception of Africa’s green hydrogen sector and Kenya getting its economic groove back.

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Webinar
Key elections in Africa in 2024

with Louw Nel and Francois Conradie | Online | November 28, 2023

If the military governments in the Sahel keep their promises, 16 African countries will hold presidential or legislative elections this year. The biggest race is in South Africa, where the African National Congress (ANC), in power since the advent of democracy in 1994, risks losing its majority. Swapo, the liberation movement in neighbouring Namibia, is in a comparably unpromising position, while in Mozambique, the ruling Frelimo has not yet picked a presidential candidate. Senegal and Ghana will both get new leaders as the incumbents must step down. We will run through the important dynamics in these five elections, and briefly touch on those to be held later in the year in Algeria, Rwanda, and Tunisia.

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Webinar
The neutral rate has risen, but by less than most think

with Ben May and Daniel Harenberg | Online | November 20, 2023

When will US policy rates start to fall, and how far? To help answer this, we have updated our estimates of the long-run US neutral interest rate. We discuss the extent to which the neutral rate has shifted due to fundamental structural forces and critically examine claims that the world has entered a period of perpetually high interest rates.

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Webinar
Perspectivas para España y Europa: los consumidores serán clave

with Angel Talavera and Debora Bourdon | Online | November 20, 2023

Con la economía de la zona euro al borde de la recesión, las perspectivas a corto plazo siguen siendo negativas. Para 2024 esperamos una cierta recuperación en Europa de la mano de unos consumidores que verán una mejora en su renta disponible debido a la caída de la inflación. Aunque los riesgos en el sector energético han disminuido en gran medida, las tensiones geopolíticas y el impacto de las subidas de tipos seguirán presentando riesgos para el crecimiento. En España, esperamos un crecimiento algo más flojo que este año a medida que los vientos de cola en la recuperación del sector servicios se agotan, pero seguiremos creciendo por encima de la media de la zona euro.

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Webinar
Monetary policy puzzles

with Arup Raha | Online | November 15, 2023

There is significant uncertainty as Asian economies approach the new year. There are two wars being fought, China faces structural headwinds, and we are not fully sure of the damage to the balance sheets of firms and households from Covid. Plus, higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and high US bond yields are restricting what policymakers in Asia can do. We try and wade through all this and arrive at the most likely outlook for Asian economies.

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Webinar
Identifying attractive EM local bonds

with Lucila Bonilla and Tomas Dvorak | Online | November 14, 2023

Disinflation momentum, weakening economic activity, high real rates, and attractive term premia explain our positive view on EM local currency debt. Weak growth raises the risk of inflation undershoots and faster monetary policy normalisation in Central and Eastern Europe. Latin America’s disinflation progressed smoothly, but growth outperformed expectations this year, prompting shallower normalisation paths. Markets price in too few rate cuts in some of these economies. We continue to tilt our local currency debt portfolio into these regions and will lay the case for our preferred stories.

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Webinar
US macro and metro outlook: slow growth ahead

with Barbara Byrne Denham and Bernard Yaros | Online | November 13, 2023

The US economy is heading into Q4 with plenty of momentum. However, this strength will wane next year, as robust consumer spending has been fueled by an unsustainable decline in savings. In addition, the tightening of financial conditions from higher bond yields and more restrictive fiscal policy will constrain growth in 2024. We see the economy slowing down to well below its potential growth rate next year but averting an outright recession. Tune in to this webinar to learn more about the economy’s prospects, along with a focus on metro-level job growth and demographic shifts.

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Webinar
How to manage sustainability risks over time

with Jake Kuyer and Carina Manitius | Online | November 2, 2023

Economic forecasting and scenario analysis across countries and sectors are critical to developing a future proof strategy for your business. Drawing on our team of 350+ full-time economists we can project how a company’s economic profile, including value chains, might change over time, assessing the exposure to risk, such as physical & transitional risks associated with climate change, and stress test macroeconomic & socio-political events. In this webinar we will demonstrate how Oxford Economics uses economics and our suite of global, transparent models to help companies manage their direct and indirect impact and dependence on each element of sustainability not just for today, but by taking a forward looking view, to address the challenges of an uncertain future.

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Webinar
US Macro Outlook: Growth set to falter?

with Michael Pearce and Nancy Vanden Houten | Online | October 31, 2023

The economy has remained resilient through the end of the third quarter, but we expect a combination of high interest rates, tighter lending conditions and more restrictive fiscal policy will push the economy into a sharp slowdown over the coming quarters. A prolonged period of below-trend growth will help to lower inflation back closer to the Fed’s 2% target. But with the Fed approaching its inflation target from above, officials are likely to take an extremely cautious approach to lowering interest rates next year and beyond.

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Webinar
Using alternative data in macro forecasting and research

with Innes McFee and Tomas Dvorak | Online | October 26, 2023

Alternative data are a promising area of economic forecasting and analysis. Novel indicators such as mobility, electricity consumption, internet searches, or proprietary sentiment indices allow us to track economic developments and trends with a much shorter lag, at much higher frequency, and often on a much more granular scale than when relying on standard aggregate macro data. In this webinar, we assess the use of alternative data in macroeconomic forecasting and research, including common pitfalls, appropriate methods and best practices based on our continued use of alternative data at Oxford Economics. We also demonstrate the existing uses of alternative data in different lines of work at Oxford Economics.

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Webinar
Middle East: Non-energy sectors on track to power 2024 recovery

with Scott Livermore and Maya Senussi | Online | October 23, 2023

The negative impact of oil output cuts on the GCC outlook looks set to extend into 2024. However, growth will improve on this year thanks to thriving non-energy sectors. We outline reasons for optimism against the backdrop of domestic and external headwinds.

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Webinar
Nordic outlook: Tighter monetary policy will weigh on activity

with Daniel Kral, Rory Fennessy, Lawrence Harper-Scott and Nico Palesch | Online | October 20, 2023

The Nordic economies face a difficult near-term outlook as weak demand and tight financial conditions weigh on activity. Although headline inflation is on its way down, core inflation is proving more stubborn with central banks sticking to a hawkish stance. In this webinar, we will present our macro, cities, and industry outlook and also deep-dive into the extraordinary rise of Denmark’s pharmaceutical industry and the persistent weakness of Sweden’s krona.

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Webinar
European Travel Trends & Outlook going into the shoulder season

with Chloe Parkins, Jennifer Iduh and Diego Maldonado | Online | October 19, 2023

International travel continues to recover this year, with some destinations experiencing a strong summer period, edging closer to pre-pandemic levels. This webinar will look into how destinations have performed over summer and its implications on recovery and performance going into the shoulder season. Will also include some insights on destinations with a contribution from TCI Research as well as from ETC and the Tourism Economics team.

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Webinar
Why the crisis in crisis resolution could go on for decades

with Gabriel Sterne and Maya Senussi | Online | October 18, 2023

Stricken sovereigns are suffering as China and the Western-dominated IMF Board engage in a titanic wrestling match over crisis-resolution architecture. It’s a massive problem that could be a destructive force for decades. In considering the arguments there’s one thing that almost all commentary has missed: China has a strong case to feel wronged.

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Webinar
Global Climate Service – From Bright to Bleak: Taking Stock of Climate Futures

with Beatrice Tanjangco, Toby Whittington and Manuela Kiehl | Online | October 17, 2023

Oxford Economics produces climate scenarios updated quarterly, using our world class models to quantify physical and transitional risks at a macroeconomic and sectoral level. Our models are hybrid structural models with transparent, verifiable channels and clear, detailed reporting on assumptions and methodology. This quarter we have expanded our coverage to highlight the full spectrum of the physical and transition risks associated with climate change. Scenarios at the tail end of distribution such as Energy Disorder focusses on energy security and Climate Catastrophe focuses on what happens if governments fail to meet policy pledges – both mean the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere intensifies and result in more severe physical damages that accelerate over time. These scenarios are critical for risk assessment. At the other end of the spectrum, there are multiple paths to keep temperatures in check, and these can be transformative or disruptive. In this webinar, we will present our findings across a range of net zero scenarios and the more extreme physical risk scenarios. We will also discuss new model developments and updates to our fossil fuel demand forecasting methodology.

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Webinar
Global spillovers from a weaker China

with Adam Slater and Innes McFee | Online | October 16, 2023

We examine how a weaker China could affect the global economy, assessing the importance of real economy and financial channels. We also report the results of a detailed modelling exercise looking at the global and cross-country impacts of a negative growth shock in China centred on real estate markets.

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