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Webinar
Air Passenger Forecasts Webinar: Growth outlook defies macroeconomic challenges

with Stephen Rooney and Rachel Yuting Fan | Online | September 27, 2023

Despite a subdued macroeconomic backdrop, air passenger traffic growth has remained steady through to July. Further, ticket sales indicate sustained demand in the months ahead. In this webinar we will discuss the industry's recent performance, its short and long-run prospects, and the underlying macroeconomic climate. Potential risks which could derail the outlook will also be explored.

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Webinar
Hausse des taux et croissance, arrive-t-on au point de rupture?

with Pierre Delage and Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani | Online | September 29, 2023

Tandis que la vague inflationniste reflue progressivement, le resserrement monétaire commence à peser sur la croissance, les dernières données indiquant un net ralentissement. Jusqu’à quand la reprise des services pourra-t-elle soutenir la croissance face à une industrie atone? L'Europe manque de relai entre une croissance aux États-Unis freinée par la Fed, et le ralentissement structurel chinois accentué pour la chute immobilière, peut-elle résister? Podczas tego webinaru przedstawimy prognozy Oxford Economics dotyczące gospodarki światowej, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem krajów strefy euro. Na koniec przyjrzymy się wpływowi otoczenia zewnętrznego jak również krajowego "policy mix" na krótkoterminowe perspektywy dla gospodarki Polski.

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Webinar
The policy cycle is peaking but is European CRE out of the woods?

with Mark Unsworth and Tomas Dvorak | Online | September 21, 2023

As we approach the peak of the monetary tightening cycle we assess what this means for UK and eurozone economic growth, inflation and interest rates. We explore the latest developments in the European commercial real estate market and assess if values have reached a turning point.

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Webinar
US Construction Outlook- Cost Increases & Labour Shortages

with Adrian Hart and Nicholas Fearnley | Online | September 26, 2023

2023 has been a challenging time for the US construction market as input cost inflation and labour shortages weighed on activity levels. Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook remains positive. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley, Matthew Mercer, and Adrian Hart will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in the US, and answer the following questions?2023 has been a challenging time for the US construction market as input cost inflation and labour shortages weighed on activity levels. Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook remains positive. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley, Matthew Mercer, and Adrian Hart will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in the US, and answer the following questions? • How does the outlook vary across states and metros? • When will residential construction activity rebound? • What do construction industry capacity constraints mean for the delivery of the IIJA? • What are the risks and implications of higher interest rates and construction costs? • What is our outlook for construction costs?

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Webinar
Global soft patch to push central banks towards policy pivot

with Ben May | Online | September 22, 2023

Economic resilience has been the key theme for the first half of 2023, but we have repeatedly argued that this unexpected strength mainly reflects spending borrowed from the future. Recently, it has become increasingly clear that the transition to weaker growth has begun. We expect a combination of a steady easing in headline and core inflation over the coming months and recessions or lacklustre growth to prompt the Fed and the European Central Bank to start cutting rates in April or May next year. The subsequent speed of policy loosening will be slow, in line with past cycles where cuts begun whilst core inflation was above target.

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Webinar
W oczekiwaniu na odbicie gospodarcze: Świat, Europa, Polska

with Mateusz Urban | Online | September 20, 2023

Globalna aktywność gospodarcza pozostaje pod presją podwyższonej inflacji i, przede wszystkim, znacznego zacieśnienia polityki monetarnej utrzymującego znaczną część gospodarek rozwiniętych na granicy stagnacji. Podczas tego webinaru przedstawimy prognozy Oxford Economics dotyczące gospodarki światowej, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem krajów strefy euro. Na koniec przyjrzymy się wpływowi otoczenia zewnętrznego jak również krajowego "policy mix" na krótkoterminowe perspektywy dla gospodarki Polski.

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Webinar
Commodities: prospects uncertain amid tepid Chinese demand, Fed tightness and potential further OPEC+ supply reductions

with Kiran Ahmed and Diego Cacciapuoti | Online | September 19, 2023

Commodity markets remain carefully balanced amid uncertain Chinese demand, a tighter Fed policy outlook and the potential for further supply reductions by OPEC+ members. Recent stimulus efforts aimed at the Chinese property sector have given some cause for optimism but doubts remain as to the longevity of any demand rally. At the same time, the natural gas sector readies itself for the winter season amid significantly improved circumstances than were present this time last year.

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Webinar
Euro area outlook: flirting with a recession

with Daniel Kral | Online | September 18, 2023

After a strong first half of the year, the eurozone area economy is hitting the brakes. Incoming data point to a material risk of a recession in the second half of 2023, amid strong headwinds. In this webinar, we’ll explore the near-term outlook, including the divergence among the largest euro area economies, and what this means for the European Central Bank.

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Webinar
Global scenarios – Taiwan tensions

with Jamie Thompson, Chris Parfit and Jennifer Colosi | Online | September 11, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service. We explore the risks posed by increased China-Taiwan tensions, as well as the potential for a stronger consumer-led recovery.

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Webinar
LatAm growth slows as Argentina eyes a silver bullet

with Joan Domene and Felipe Camargo | Online | September 8, 2023

Growth dynamics across the region’s largest economies are diverging. Mexico’s delayed recovery will support its overperformance, while most countries are already feeling the impact of policy tightening. Resilient consumption in some countries and new shocks to commodity prices could compromise the speed of monetary policy normalization, which has already begun. Argentina’s surprise presidential front-runner opened the door to a possible dollarization that revived an old ghost. We will discuss the potential path to its implementation and the degree of success it could achieve.

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Webinar
Industrial outlook remains gloomy for now

with Nico Palesch and Sean Metcalfe | Online | September 14, 2023

High-frequency indicators show that economic activity is weakening through the second half of 2023, and that industry is performing worse than the broader economy. The impact of past policy tightening and the reduced availability of credit is dampening activity and contributing to a deteriorating near-term outlook for investment spending, which is disproportionately impacting manufacturing and other investment-facing sectors of the economy. While supply chains have normalised to a large degree, which is contributing to easing inflation and recovering production in backlog-affected sectors, headwinds to industrial activity are shifting partly from the supply to the demand side. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect a relatively shallow downturn in industrial activity as opposed to a total collapse. In this webinar, we will provide a comprehensive update of the global industrial outlook and account for the divergent fortunes across the different sectors that make up the economy.

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Webinar
Ripe for a correction

with Daniel Grosvenor and Javier Corominas | Online | September 12, 2023

In our first webinar after the summer recess, our Director of Global Macro Strategy Javier Corominas and Director of Equity Strategy Daniel Grosvenor outline why they think the recent equity market correction will continue and why it is now time to add duration to portfolios. The latest update of our Cross Asset framework indicators supports defensive allocations. Investor sentiment has become overly optimistic and risk assets look vulnerable to tighter financial conditions and a deteriorating global credit impulse which we think will contribute to a sustained period of weak global economic growth. We think DM bonds are increasingly attractive in this environment following the recent rise in long-end yields.

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Webinar
EM policy pivots ahead of AEs as investment takes a hit

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | August 24, 2023

Real activity growth in emerging markets (EMs) ex-China has been more resilient than we expected, despite very tight monetary policy. So far this year, we’ve increased our GDP forecasts in 15 large EMs. However, our Q2 nowcasts are indicating slowing momentum, particularly though investment weakness. We pencil a greater drag from past policy tightening on activity in 2024 that will contribute to easing core inflation momentum. This will allow most EMs to cut ahead of the Fed, with risks tilted to a faster normalisation.

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Webinar
Are African countries’ fiscal efforts strong enough to restore debt sustainability?

with Irmgard Erasmus and Pieter Scribante | Online | August 29, 2023

May’s downside surprise for inflation caused markets to rein in their expectations for the future path for Bank Rate. But we’re not out of the woods yet, with our recent research highlighting why the second round effects of higher energy prices are likely to prove more persistent than the initial direct and indirect impact. In this webinar we react to the August MPC meeting and assess the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

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Webinar
UK Macro – Inflation and BoE outlook

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | August 17, 2023

May’s downside surprise for inflation caused markets to rein in their expectations for the future path for Bank Rate. But we’re not out of the woods yet, with our recent research highlighting why the second round effects of higher energy prices are likely to prove more persistent than the initial direct and indirect impact. In this webinar we react to the August MPC meeting and assess the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

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Webinar
China at the half-year mark: Is the glass half empty or half full?

with Lloyd Chan and Louise Loo | Online | August 16, 2023

The near-term macro outlook on China looks especially foggy. There’s more stimulus but not the ones we’re used to. More property weakness but a hard-landing still appears remote. New growth areas but the regulatory environment remains cautious. Join us as we discuss the implications of recent developments to our outlook.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – July 2023

with Tony Stillo, Michael Davenport and Cassidy Rheaume | Online | August 10, 2023

The Canadian economy outperformed expectations in early 2023, but it was likely just a temporary reprieve from recession. In this podcast, Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow economists, Michael Davenport and Cassidy Rheaume discuss the economy’s recent resilience and the forces that make a moderate downturn unavoidable.

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Webinar
US outlook: See no recession, hear no recession?

with Ryan Sweet and Oren Klachkin | Online | July 11, 2023

The economy stands on solid ground mid-way through 2023 as consumer spending remains resilient and businesses continue to hire. However, we see storm clouds on the horizon and anticipate a mild recession as the Fed remains reluctant to take its foot off the brake while credit conditions tighten further. Tune in to our quarterly outlook webinar to find out how bad the damage will be.

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Webinar
Energy Disorder

with David Winter and Manuela Kiehl | Online | July 19, 2023

The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of five climate scenarios against a stated policies baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation. This quarter our new scenario – Energy Disorder – demonstrates the cost of policy action that prioritises energy security over decarbonisation. Weak mitigation across sectors causes high physical climate damages. Protectionism associated with regionalisation and more divisive international relations generates trade frictions that cause further hits to output.

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