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Webinar
Global soft patch to push central banks towards policy pivot

with Ben May | Online | September 22, 2023

Economic resilience has been the key theme for the first half of 2023, but we have repeatedly argued that this unexpected strength mainly reflects spending borrowed from the future. Recently, it has become increasingly clear that the transition to weaker growth has begun. We expect a combination of a steady easing in headline and core inflation over the coming months and recessions or lacklustre growth to prompt the Fed and the European Central Bank to start cutting rates in April or May next year. The subsequent speed of policy loosening will be slow, in line with past cycles where cuts begun whilst core inflation was above target.

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Webinar
Euro area outlook: flirting with a recession

with Daniel Kral | Online | September 18, 2023

After a strong first half of the year, the eurozone area economy is hitting the brakes. Incoming data point to a material risk of a recession in the second half of 2023, amid strong headwinds. In this webinar, we’ll explore the near-term outlook, including the divergence among the largest euro area economies, and what this means for the European Central Bank.

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