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Key Themes for Canada in 2023: A year in recession

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | January 26, 2023

Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023. Prevailing household debt and housing imbalances will mix with pandemic and geopolitical forces to make Canada's recession deeper than most advanced economies. We expect GDP will contract by 1.3% in 2023, well-below consensus expectations, with six key themes featuring prominently.

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Post-election scenarios for Brazil

with Marcos Casarin and Felipe Camargo | Online | October 28, 2022

Brazil's presidential election will be decided on October 29 in a runoff between left-wing former president Lula da Silva (PT) and far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro (PL). We think that a Lula victory could be a best-case scenario for investors, as the charismatic, progressive leader will have to reach consensuses with a conservative congress to pass legislation, reducing the risks of radical policy changes.

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