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Webinar
Four scenarios for the South African Election

with Louw Nel | Online | May 17, 2024

The ANC, in power since 1994, is set to lose its legislative majority in the May 29 general election, and democratic South Africa will have its first coalition government at national level. Will the liberation movement attain a legislative majority by partnering with small parties? Or will it have to choose between the radical leftists of the EFF and the liberals of the DA? And what does the choice mean for the economy? This webinar sets out the policy implications, macroeconomic consequences, and political-economic risk effects under each of these three scenarios as well as a fourth one, in which the DA’s liberal coalition wins a majority.

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Webinar
Key elections in Africa in 2024

with Louw Nel and Francois Conradie | Online | November 28, 2023

If the military governments in the Sahel keep their promises, 16 African countries will hold presidential or legislative elections this year. The biggest race is in South Africa, where the African National Congress (ANC), in power since the advent of democracy in 1994, risks losing its majority. Swapo, the liberation movement in neighbouring Namibia, is in a comparably unpromising position, while in Mozambique, the ruling Frelimo has not yet picked a presidential candidate. Senegal and Ghana will both get new leaders as the incumbents must step down. We will run through the important dynamics in these five elections, and briefly touch on those to be held later in the year in Algeria, Rwanda, and Tunisia.

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