Africa Risk Reward Index 2023

Highlights

The index offers a comparative snapshot of market opportunities and risks across the continent, which will allow your organisation to develop an informed strategy for growing your business or investing in Africa. As global attention splits and the fault lines between global geopolitical powers deepen, Africa finds its economic recovery under threat. From the war in Ukraine, a global surge in inflation, security fragility and climate shocks have added significant pressure, exacerbated uncertainty and forced geopolitical changes that will redefine Africa’s role on the global stage.

The potential pitfalls and profits in polarisation

African countries are resisting pressure to align, even as the fault lines between global geopolitical powers deepen. US-China rivalry in the technology sphere and the associated attempts to decouple will continue. In addition, Western countries’ opposition to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has seen them external support in their condemnation of Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.

African-led security interventions

Global attention is split as the conflict in Ukraine continues and countries in the Global North are increasingly focused on their own domestic political concerns. Conflicts and security crises on the continent are not gaining sustained attention from external actors. This is having serious impacts on the continent. A broader weakening of multilateral institutions such as the UN has opened the arena for other external actors, including Russia.

Financing for the future

While we anticipate that Africa on the balance will benefit from growing geopolitical fragmentation in the longer term, in the interim African financial services institutions are stepping in to plug the funding gap and helping bridge access and inclusion divides.