A prolonged Iran conflict isn't just a geopolitical crisis - it's a direct economic shock to Australian households, industries, and...
Macroeconomics
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中東情勢の緊迫化は、需要とコストの両面から売上に影響を及ぼします。その深刻度は、原油・天然ガスへの依存度、各国の経済構造や金融・財政政策、さらには株価や為替の反応など産業ごとに大きく異なります。こうした影響を的確に捉えるには、複数の波及経路を考慮したマクロ経済的な視点が重要です。
The escalating conflict involving Iran is adding a new layer of geopolitical risk that threatens to derail the recovery in...
Research Briefing
War in the Middle East and the shutdown of Qatari LNG exports have effectively removed roughly 20% of global LNG...
Research Briefing
We revised our forecast for consumer spending down in the second March baseline, released Friday, to reflect higher oil prices,...
Still sluggish domestic demand, the recently-concluded ‘Two Sessions’, and an ongoing Middle Eastern conflict all point to the need for...
Research Briefing
Energy prices are pushing inflation higher in the UK and Eurozone, undermining the idea that central banks can simply look...
Consulting Report
The EU’s Tobacco Excise Directive set a harmonised framework for cigarette taxation, but our study shows that differences in the...
Webinar
Join us as we examine the key insights from our Q1 2026 Global Scenarios Service. Among the global risks quantified...
Research Briefing
The White House has pivoted to a new tariff authority to impose a 10% global duty, with the possibility of...
Research Briefing
A jobless expansion, the growing role of financial wealth, and the impact of fiscal policy will widen the bifurcation of...
Research Briefing
Strong services growth and industrial specialisation are strengthening Birmingham’s economy, yet structural challenges remain—will the city be able to sustain...
In this webinar, we'll highlight the key drivers of consumer opportunities across top consumer markets globally. We'll look at how...
Webinar
The forces that are driving the US economy are more striking at the state and metro level. In this panel...
米国を中心としたAI投資ブームはトランプ関税ショックを受けた世界経済の救世主となりましたが、その持続性を巡る懸念は高まっています。今後のAI普及ペースに加え、それが経済全体の生産性をどの程度高めるかについても大きな不確実性があります。 また、AIによる労働代替は雇用を脅かしているのではないのか、次期FRB議長に指名されたウォーシュ氏が重視するAIのディスインフレ効果は利下げを正当化するのかなど、AIとマクロ経済を巡る議論は盛り上がる一方です。米国を中心としたAI投資ブームはトランプ関税ショックを受けた世界経済の救世主となりましたが、その持続性を巡る懸念は高まっています。今後のAI普及ペースに加え、それが経済全体の生産性をどの程度高めるかについても大きな不確実性があります。
Research Briefing
We've raised our terminal rate assumption for the Bank of Japan to 1.5% from 1% in February. This reflects changes...
Research Briefing
While Kevin Warsh, the Trump administration's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, was a more hawkish member of the Federal Open...
Research Briefing
With net migration set to fall to its lowest level since 1997, the UK faces weaker growth and higher borrowing....
Recent developments such as rising US isolationism and the AI investment boom could materially change long-term growth prospects. In this...
Il contesto macroeconomico globale resta dominato da incertezza e volatilità. Tensioni geopolitiche, nuove minacce di dazi e l’accelerazione dell’intelligenza artificiale...
