Research Briefing
The energy crisis will shape the macroeconomic outlook again in 2023, keeping the eurozone economy in recession at the start...
Inflation
Are we now stuck in a high inflation world? Temporarily high inflation has lasted for longer than anyone predicted and inflation is set to rise further from here. Might we have actually entered into a new, higher, regime for inflation? Find out more about our GDP inflation forecast.
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 504 results
Research Briefing
Following the conclusion of HomeBuilder, rising property prices and interest rate hikes, first home buyer (FHB) demand has normalised to...
Research Briefing
Many cities in the world's advanced economies will enter recession in 2023, with soaring inflation and tightening monetary and fiscal...
Research Briefing
Policy divergence will continue to be a key theme in global FI markets in 2023. Whereas we pencil in a...
Research Briefing
The Hungarian economy is being hit by a perfect storm of shocks, particularly surging inflation and a weakening currency. Our...
Consulting Report
Europe enjoyed a strong tourism rebound over the summer months as Covid-19 disruptions abated. However, the region was not exempt...
Research Briefing
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% at yesterday's meeting, undershooting consensus and our...
Research Briefing
Despite an upside growth surprise for Q3, we still expect the eurozone to fall into a widespread recession. Not all...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast is for consumer spending in the eurozone to fall over the next two quarters as consumption fundamentals...
Research Briefing
Another wave of yen weakening has not deterred the Bank of Japan (BoJ) from leaving monetary policy unchanged at today's...
Research Briefing
UK government's U-turns on tax cuts, the prospect of further fiscal policy tightening, and calmer financial markets mean the Monetary...
Research Briefing
Revisions to personal income and spending data suggest US households accumulated a smaller stock of excess savings and have depleted...
Research Briefing
Central banks and many other forecasters may be underestimating the risk of persistently high inflation. While our view is that...
Research Briefing
Anything but a 75bps hike of the ECB's key policy rates after next week's council meeting would be a big...
Research Briefing
The evidence of the past year shows that inflation has been far from transitory. But we still believe supply factors...
Research Briefing
We expect Canada to enter a recession in Q4 2022 and as a result, most metros including Toronto, Montreal, and...
Research Briefing
The real-wages squeeze, slowing retail sales, and falling commodity and producer prices all point to inflation slowing down, albeit slowly....
Research Briefing
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession in the first half of 2023. Despite moderate improvement in...
Research Briefing
We expect a shallow but protracted recession in Finland from Q3 this year to Q1 2023, with a contraction of...
Research Briefing
Upward revisions to recent quarters have pushed up our Sweden growth forecast for 2022 to 3%. That said, we expect...
