Recent Release | 15 Nov 2022

European Tourism 2022 – Trends & Prospects (Q3/2022)

Tourism Consulting Team

Tourism Economics

EUROPEAN TOURISM HAS RALLIED DESPITE COST-OF-LIVING PRESSURES

Europe enjoyed a strong tourism rebound over the summer months as Covid-19 disruptions abated. However, the region was not exempt from turmoil arising from the prolonged war in Ukraine, labour shortages, elevated food and energy prices, and stalling economic growth. Although gas prices have recently decreased, attributed to almost full storage levels and reduced demand in most EU countries due to a combination of warmer than average weather and energy saving initiatives, prices still remain sky-high and are expected to cause economic turmoil this winter.

Travel costs have inevitably spiralled upwards, adding to the many factors sapping consumer spending and confidence. Despite acute challenges, Europe’s travel bounce-back is expected to continue in the remaining months of 2022, led by cost-conscious and value-driven travel. Encouraging data suggests a positive outlook in 2022, with the region expected to recover 73% of 2019 overnight tourist arrival volumes. However, 2019 levels will only be achieved by 2025.

Travel enthusiasm persisted this summer with over half of reporting destinations recovering to at least 77% of 2019 levels of foreign arrivals. The rebound was led mostly by Southern Mediterranean destinations. Based on data to August, Turkey (-5%), Serbia (-8%) and Luxembourg (-9%) made the strongest comeback. While Turkey remains a good value destination, Serbia is open to Russian travellers without visa requirements. Indeed, there has been an influx of Russians arriving in Serbia. In some cases, tourism is likely being used as a pretence for travel; in reality, many are likely fleeing Russia as a consequence of Putin’s war in Ukraine and the impact this has had on life within an increasingly isolated Russia.

About the team

Our consulting team at Tourism Economics are the world’s leading analysts of the global tourism and travel sector. They combine their expert insight with our state-of-the-art economic models and tools to answer the crucial questions facing our clients. Lead consultants on the project were:

Dave Goodger

Managing Director, EMEA, Tourism Economics

+44 (0)1865 268 928

Dave Goodger

Managing Director, EMEA, Tourism Economics

London

David Goodger is Managing Director, EMEA, Tourism Economics. He has been instrumental in developing the global model of tourism flows and spending, which covers 185 origins and destinations, and he continues to manage regular forecast updates. He also maintains an active role in new product development and consultancy work.

David Goodger is a Director within Tourism Economics and primarily concentrates on tourism demand forecasting and market sizing. He has also taken an active role in further model development for specific purposes, with an emphasis on examining the economic contributions of particular sectors and the impact of different policies. He has conducted a groundbreaking analysis of the business travel sector for the WTTC and the US Travel Association which estimates the return on investment of corporate spending on travel and he has developed models to define destination marketing allocations.

Since joining Oxford Economics in 2000, David Goodger has been involved in a wide range of forecasting and modelling activities. He has been part of the macroeconomic forecasting and the industrial forecasting teams contributing to both regular reports and specific client studies as well as assisting in the development of detailed forecasting and simulation models.

David was educated at the University of Bristol, England, where he gained a first-class degree in Economics with Statistics; and at the London School of Economics and Political Science, England, where he graduated with an MSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics.

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