Recent Release | 15 Nov 2022
European Tourism 2022 – Trends & Prospects (Q3/2022)
Tourism Consulting Team
Tourism Economics
EUROPEAN TOURISM HAS RALLIED DESPITE COST-OF-LIVING PRESSURES
Europe enjoyed a strong tourism rebound over the summer months as Covid-19 disruptions abated. However, the region was not exempt from turmoil arising from the prolonged war in Ukraine, labour shortages, elevated food and energy prices, and stalling economic growth. Although gas prices have recently decreased, attributed to almost full storage levels and reduced demand in most EU countries due to a combination of warmer than average weather and energy saving initiatives, prices still remain sky-high and are expected to cause economic turmoil this winter.
Travel costs have inevitably spiralled upwards, adding to the many factors sapping consumer spending and confidence. Despite acute challenges, Europe’s travel bounce-back is expected to continue in the remaining months of 2022, led by cost-conscious and value-driven travel. Encouraging data suggests a positive outlook in 2022, with the region expected to recover 73% of 2019 overnight tourist arrival volumes. However, 2019 levels will only be achieved by 2025.
Travel enthusiasm persisted this summer with over half of reporting destinations recovering to at least 77% of 2019 levels of foreign arrivals. The rebound was led mostly by Southern Mediterranean destinations. Based on data to August, Turkey (-5%), Serbia (-8%) and Luxembourg (-9%) made the strongest comeback. While Turkey remains a good value destination, Serbia is open to Russian travellers without visa requirements. Indeed, there has been an influx of Russians arriving in Serbia. In some cases, tourism is likely being used as a pretence for travel; in reality, many are likely fleeing Russia as a consequence of Putin’s war in Ukraine and the impact this has had on life within an increasingly isolated Russia.
About the team
Our consulting team at Tourism Economics are the world’s leading analysts of the global tourism and travel sector. They combine their expert insight with our state-of-the-art economic models and tools to answer the crucial questions facing our clients. Lead consultants on the project were:
Dave Goodger
Managing Director, EMEA, Tourism Economics
+44 (0) 1865 268 928
Dave Goodger
Managing Director, EMEA, Tourism Economics
London, United Kingdom
David Goodger is Managing Director, EMEA, Tourism Economics. He has been instrumental in developing the global model of tourism flows and spending, which covers 185 origins and destinations, and he continues to manage regular forecast updates. He also maintains an active role in new product development and consultancy work.
David Goodger is a Director within Tourism Economics and primarily concentrates on tourism demand forecasting and market sizing. He has also taken an active role in further model development for specific purposes, with an emphasis on examining the economic contributions of particular sectors and the impact of different policies. He has conducted a groundbreaking analysis of the business travel sector for the WTTC and the US Travel Association which estimates the return on investment of corporate spending on travel and he has developed models to define destination marketing allocations.
Since joining Oxford Economics in 2000, David Goodger has been involved in a wide range of forecasting and modelling activities. He has been part of the macroeconomic forecasting and the industrial forecasting teams contributing to both regular reports and specific client studies as well as assisting in the development of detailed forecasting and simulation models.
David was educated at the University of Bristol, England, where he gained a first-class degree in Economics with Statistics; and at the London School of Economics and Political Science, England, where he graduated with an MSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics.
You might be interested in
Post
The Economic Impact of Online Travel Agencies in Europe 2019 – 2021
OTAs generate additional travel demand for accommodations in Europe boosting GDP and job creation. In particular independent accommodations benefit from OTAs by accruing a larger share of bookings than the market average. OTAs support more equitable development across Europe by orienting consumers towards rural areas.
Find Out More
Post
The Economic Impact of Online Travel Agencies in APAC 2019 – 2021
OTAs generate additional travel demand for accommodation in APAC boosting GDP and job creation. Consumers in APAC also benefit from OTAs through more affordable rates offered to travellers.
Find Out More
Post
The Economic Impact of Online Travel Agencies in United States and Canada 2019 – 2021
In addition to generating significant economic impacts in terms of GDP and jobs, OTAs benefit the accommodation market in North America through downward effects on rates and by expanding the number of room nights available to consumers.
Find Out More
Post
European Tourism 2022 – Trends & Prospects (Q2/2022)
Destinations across Europe continue to relax travel restrictions as concerns over Covid-19 wither away, enabling the release of strong (short- and mid-haul) pent-up demand. However, skyrocketing energy prices are pushing travel costs yet higher, prompting people to travel closer to home or consider cost-saving options. It remains to be seen how households (especially lower-income earners) will make a trade-off on travel spending this summer amidst consumer price hikes and squeezed disposable incomes.
Find Out More