Research Briefing | Nov 10, 2022

Recession imminent, but two-speed for Europe’s Big Four

Despite an upside growth surprise for Q3, we still expect the eurozone to fall into a widespread recession. Not all countries will be impacted uniformly, though – our new country-level indicators for Germany and Italy point to recession probabilities being significantly higher and the business cycle weakening more in these countries than in France and Spain.

What you will learn:

  • The stagflationary environment across Europe will drag all the Big Four economies into recession.
  • Contractions will be deeper in Germany and Italy.
  • France and Spain’s relative resilience will not prevent a winter recession.
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