Ungated Post|8 February 2018

Business optimism over global outlook strongest for two years – OE survey

Companies’ spirits boosted by buoyant world trade and US fiscal stimulus measures as fears over North Korea tensions and China slowdown retreat.

Businesses are increasingly positive about prospects for the world economy, with optimism over the global outlook at its strongest for two years, according to Oxford Economics’ latest survey of global risk perceptions among clients and business contacts, including some of the world’s largest companies.

Ungated Post|20 November 2017

Europe may be poised for a golden decade of economic expansion

Lost amid Europe’s political drama and recurrent euro doomsday scenarios is the fact that the Eurozone economy has a business cycle that is alive and well.

Our analysis suggests there is plenty of room left in the current expansionary cycle, which could see the single currency area enjoy a golden decade of economic growth.

More than four years into the current upturn, most indicators signal the Eurozone economy is still somewhere around mid-cycle, suggesting that – absent an unexpected shock – we should see several more years of sustained expansion.

One reason is that the amount of economic slack in the Eurozone countries – the size of the “output gap” before an economy hits a ‘speed limit’ above which growth comes with inflation – may be larger than commonly accepted.

Ungated Post|8 November 2017

Goldilocks sees off market bears with help of resurgent global growth

Equity earnings cycles to power ahead – especially in underperforming Europe and EM markets

The world economy is evidently in the midst of what many are calling a synchronised upswing in growth. A strong rebound in manufacturing, led by Europe, appears to be at the heart of the resurgence. And the pace of expansion has accelerated in recent months. This environment is fundamentally conducive to outperformance by assets leveraged to global growth.

Investors have now been uneasy for many months that in some key global equity markets, shares are becoming overvalued, with share prices relative to corporate earnings – P/E ratios ¬– stretched, especially in the United States.

But our analysis concludes that equity earnings cycles, especially in underperforming markets in Europe and emerging markets (EM), should continue to power ahead for some time.

Ungated Post|20 July 2017

Trump vs Clinton: Polarization and Uncertainty

The economic impact of the US elections

With the US presidential elections less than two months away, our economists have taken a close look the economic policy put forward by the Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump campaigns and their macroeconomic impact over the coming years.

In this research briefing we describe how four key factors explain diverging economic trajectories under a Trump and Clinton presidency:

Fiscal
Trade
Immigration policy
Confidence/uncertainty.

The analysis was created using our internationally renowned Global Economic Model, which provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and scenario analysis.

As an independent economic advisory firm, Oxford Economics has no political affiliation.

Ungated Post|23 February 2017

World Economic Prospects Executive Summary: February 2017

February 2017: A recovery in trade

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 160 economists updates its baseline forecast for 200 countries using the Global Economic Model, the only fully integrated economic forecasting framework of its kind. Below is a summary of our analysis on the latest economic developments, and headline forecasts.

Ungated Post|10 January 2017

Top ten calls for 2017 — Trumpenomics leads the way

Our top ten calls for 2017 are, not surprisingly, dominated by the impact of Donald Trump’s surprise election victory in November. The full effect of reflationary policies under the new Trump administration is unlikely to be seen in the real economy until 2018 with world GDP growth and trade growth remaining moderate next year. Nevertheless, we do expect US growth to firm in 2017 and US financial market developments – to some extent anticipating the likely fiscal policy and growth effects of Trump’s policies – will have a major impact on the global economic landscape.

The US-China Business Council commissioned Oxford Economics to assess the overall impact of the trade and economic relationship with China on the US economy. The study shows that today, the US-China trade relationship actually supports roughly 2.6 mi

Breaking new ground in macro research, Oxford Economics has captured current and historical statistics on bilateral trade in services for 24 key trading nations to build a unique, comprehensive database. These previously elusive data give us unpreced

Ungated Post|13 December 2016

Trump and Technology

If the most iconic American job ever is riding the range as a cowboy, then rolling down the highway as a long-haul trucker is somewhere on the short list. Now, 159 years after a patent was issued for the technology (barbed wire) that would end mass employment for the cowpoke, technology in the form of self-driving vehicles is threatening to reduce the role of the truck driver—one of the most common occupations in the country.

Ungated Post|14 November 2016

The Effect of a Trump Presidency on International Travel to the US

The election of Donald Trump has introduced new uncertainty into the outlook for the US travel industry. While a Clinton presidency would have been broadly considered a continuation of existing policies, Trump ran a campaign calling for shifts in foreign, fiscal, trade, and immigration policies that have potentially significant implications for the global economy and travel.

Oxford Economics has separately analyzed Trump’s proposals and assessed a range of risks to the US economy. The conclusion of this analysis is that the most likely scenario involves significantly watered-down positions that would produce only marginally slower economic growth in 2017 and 2018 relative to our pre-election baseline scenario.

News|1 November 2016

Oxford Economists Develop a New Global Impact Model

Economic impact assessments provide a clear insight into how a firms operations and interactions with suppliers generates economic activity. They capture how supply chains spread through an economy, enabling us to quantify a firm’s footprint.

Yet typically they only consider a firm’s operations and spending in one country. For some companies this may be ideal: for instance if they have a single location and spend little with suppliers in other economies. But for globally integrated businesses, such analysis does not capture the impact on a local economy in its entirety.

Traditionally a firm’s operations and suppliers outside of the main country of analysis, as well as trade impact they have on an economy, have been beyond the capacity of standard impact models. Such activities are known as ‘leakage’ from the analysis. These limitations have meant conventional impact studies inevitably understate a global company’s national economic contribution, although they still quantify important effects.

ASEAN economies have been at the heart of global trade integration over recent decades, as well as being a key part of China’s emergence into the global economy. But with world trade set for slower expansion, and China’s economic growth becoming more

Oxford Economics and The Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute were commissioned by Leonardo Technologies, Inc. on behalf of the Department of Energy to undertake a scenario‐based assessment of the macroeconomic impact of al

This report explores how international business has changed since HSBC first opened its doors in Hong Kong over 150 years—and what may come next.

The objective of this study was to examine trade patterns in order to understand the historic drivers

This report, produced by Oxford Economics, explores the scale and nature of the economic benefits that Aerolíneas Argentinas brought to the Argentina economy over the period 2012-2014. In addition to the benefits to the local economy from Aerolíneas’

This report investigates and, whenever possible, values the amenity benefits the Port of London Authority’s stretch of the Thames delivers to residents, day-trippers and tourists. The report was launched on Monday 7th September 2015, on the occasion

The Internet of Things is poised to turn the physical assets all around us into participants in real-time global digital markets—indexed, searched, and traded as any online commodity. This report, produced by IBM in collaboration with Oxford Economic

Today, some 3.3 million salaried workers across the US retail and restaurant industries can be exempted from the right to receive overtime pay because they earn at least $455 per week—the so-called overtime threshold. The Department of Labor is curre

This study, commissioned by the BVRLA, the trade body for the vehicle rental and leasing sector, investigates the economic contribution the full-service leasing and rental sector makes to the UK economy. In 2013, the sector owned some 3.6 million ve

This study, commissioned by leading players from the aviation and tourism sectors and published at the Annual Conference & Exhibition of the Airport Operators Association (AOA), the trade body for UK airports, on 10 November, shows that all three ele

Business optimism over global outlook strongest for two years – OE survey

Europe may be poised for a golden decade of economic expansion

Goldilocks sees off market bears with help of resurgent global growth

Equity earnings cycles to power ahead – especially in underperforming Europe and EM markets

Trump vs Clinton: Polarization and Uncertainty

The economic impact of the US elections

World Economic Prospects Executive Summary: February 2017

February 2017: A recovery in trade

Top ten calls for 2017 — Trumpenomics leads the way

Top ten calls for 2017 — Trumpenomics leads the way

Trump and Technology

The Effect of a Trump Presidency on International Travel to the US

Oxford Economists Develop a New Global Impact Model

Get in touch

Information

Join Us

Policies