Ungated Post | 14 Nov 2016

The Effect of a Trump Presidency on International Travel to the US

The election of Donald Trump has introduced new uncertainty into the outlook for the US travel industry. While a Clinton presidency would have been broadly considered a continuation of existing policies, Trump ran a campaign calling for shifts in foreign, fiscal, trade, and immigration policies that have potentially significant implications for the global economy and travel.

Oxford Economics has separately analyzed Trump’s proposals and assessed a range of risks to the US economy. The conclusion of this analysis is that the most likely scenario involves significantly watered-down positions that would produce only marginally slower economic growth in 2017 and 2018 relative to our pre-election baseline scenario.

But travel is notoriously more reactive to external events. International leisure travelers in particular have discretion in their choice of destinations and readily shift preferences based on any number of real or perceived factors. Given Trump’s protectionist platform, questioning of longstanding alliances, and “America first” rhetoric, it bears asking what effect his presidency might have on travel to the US.

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