Following the outcome of the US elections, we have adopted our ‘limited Trump’ scenario as our new baseline forecast. Our new baseline assumes a Republican-led Congress extends the personal tax cuts under the 2017 tax law and enacts higher spending levels.
Instead of moving away from the riskiest regions of the country, people in the US continue to move into metros with high climate-related risks.
Our latest whitepaper reveals that the middle class population in emerging markets is set to double over the next decade, expanding from 354 million households in 2024 to 687 million households by 2034.
Labour turnover is quickly rising among full-time workers in Japan, where long-term employment has been prevailing. Although a serious labour shortage and a sharp rise in labour turnover will provide a great opportunity and incentive for productivity improvement, we this this will occur only gradually.
Though Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning the election have improved since her debate with former President Donald Trump, we aren’t changing our subjective odds for the outcome of the 2024 presidential contest.
We created a real-time tracker of unauthorized migrants to the US, the driving force behind the nation’s post-pandemic immigration surge. New undocumented migrants in the US will total 2.3mn this year, nearly 1mn lower than in 2023.
Over the next five years, India is forecast to be the fastest growing major economy across Asia-Pacific. We expect India’s real GDP to grow on average 6.7% per year between 2024 and 2028. In general, we expect the Southern states to lead GDP growth rankings, while the Central, Eastern, and Northeastern states are anticipated to lag.
Metros with the fastest population growth are among those with the highest natural hazard risks. Using FEMA’s National Risk Index, we estimate the share of each metro’s GDP expected to be lost on an annual basis due to natural hazards.
The three northern swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are must-win states for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
The smaller-than-anticipated gain in July and the rise in the unemployment rate will give the perception that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve, but monthly employment is volatile and we don’t want to overreact to a single report.
US business profit margins will remain elevated through 2025, with a boost from higher investments of recent years, despite challenges from slowing growth, less pricing power, and increasing debt cost.
We estimate that Japan’s nominal neutral interest rate – the rate consistent with monetary policy that is neither stimulative nor restrictive – has risen somewhat since 2022, marking a striking reversal from its decades-long slide. More importantly, we project it to continue rising gradually, to around 1% by 2030 from 0% in 2023.
The Pacific Northwest’s robust economy is forecast to continue to outperform over the next few years. A large presence of high-growth tech and manufacturing sectors supports the region’s largest cities—Seattle, Portland, and Boise.
President Biden’s decision to withdraw as a candidate caps a string of major political events that has roiled the 2024 presidential race.
Canada’s population growth will slow dramatically to an average of 0.8% annually from 2025 to 2027 after surging by 3% annually in 2024 and 2023. The sharp deceleration reflects the federal government’s new target to reduce temporary residents’ share of the population to 5% by 2027.
Although GDP growth has and will continue to cool somewhat in 2024 and 2025, considerable momentum remains in the economy driven by steady consumer spending and robust job growth. We forecast that the range of growth rates across metros will narrow over the next two years as net migration rates normalize to pre-Covid-19 levels.
Join Andrew Goodwin, Chief UK Economist, as he outlines the potential economic impact on fiscal policy of the manifestos published recently by the Conservative and Labour parties.
On behalf of the European Digital Payment Industry Alliance (EDPIA), our report on “The Environmental Impact of Digital over Cash Payments in Europe” seeks to evaluate carbon emissions across payment systems at point of sales.
Consumer spending growth is set to remain robust across the US. With real incomes continuing to rise, spending growth is forecast to average 2.4% this year, which represents a growth premium from the 2023 outturn of 2.2%. Nationally, the labor market remains strong, while strong household balance sheets have helped keep the saving rate low. Real incomes will continue to rise as inflation eases back.
Prabhjeet Singh, the India and South Asia president for Uber Technologies, quoted Oxford Economics’ research commissioned by Uber to discuss how access to ride-hailing could get more South Asian women to work.
