Pacific Northwest to withstand challenges and lead growth

The Pacific Northwest’s robust economy is forecast to continue to outperform over the next few years. A large presence of high-growth tech and manufacturing sectors supports the region’s largest cities—Seattle, Portland, and Boise. A robust labor market, attractive lifestyle factors, more affordable housing, and a cooler climate than the California coast will continue to appeal to residents and migrants. However, potential headwinds to Seattle include the current issues facing Boeing and a slowdown in e-commerce.

What you will learn:

• GDP growth will outpace the US through 2028. Washington will enjoy the fastest GDP growth of any state, with Oregon and Idaho also in the top 10. Seattle and Bend (OR) will be among the 10 fastest growing metros nationally. Tech is a large sector, especially in the big metros, and it will contribute one-third of the region’s GDP gains through 2028 (nearly twice the national share).
• However, the regional capital Seattle is heavily influenced by a few large employers. Ongoing supply chain issues have affected Boeing, while the Air Alaska incident at the start of the year has raised concerns amid negative press and safety issues. Meanwhile, a post-Covid-19 slowdown in e-commerce growth may affect Amazon. The aerospace and online shopping sectors are both still forecast to grow, but more slowly.
• Washington will have the fifth highest level of net inward migration of any state over the next five years; Portland and Seattle remain attractive metros for graduates and young professionals. Although housing is expensive, Washington is more affordable than California (from where many migrants originate), and residents in the Evergreen State can enjoy the abundance of outdoor amenities and more work from home opportunities.