Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2024

Steady US metro consumer spending growth in short term

Although GDP growth has and will continue to cool somewhat in 2024 and 2025, considerable momentum remains in the economy driven by steady consumer spending and robust job growth. We forecast that the range of growth rates across metros will narrow over the next two years as net migration rates normalize to pre-Covid-19 levels. Still, tech-heavy metros are forecast to see the highest consumer spending and GDP growth rates, while Sunbelt metros are forecast to lead job growth as Midwest metros trail.

What you will learn:

  • We forecast positive consumer spending growth in 2024 and 2025 for all the top 50 metros driven by steady growth in disposable income. We forecast that Austin, Raleigh, Denver, Nashville, and Phoenix will see the highest spending growth, while Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Memphis, Buffalo, and Chicago will trail.
  • We also expect positive GDP growth in 2024 with only moderately lower rates of growth in 2025 for all the top 50 metros. Austin, Las Vegas, San Antonio, Dallas, and San Jose are expected to post the highest growth rates, led by both the information and professional services sectors. Buffalo, Baltimore, New Orleans, Cleveland, and Detroit are forecast to trail.
  • We anticipate a similar trend for the labor market, with job growth slowing somewhat for the top 50 metros between this year and next. Just as it did in 2023, the healthcare sector will drive much of the job growth in 2024, and spending on healthcare will also remain robust in the short term.
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