Research Briefing
The global recovery from the pandemic will be dented but not derailed if high energy prices persist throughout 2022, our...
Debt and savings
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The legacy of the massive fiscal response to the pandemic is ballooning government debt. From 2019 to today, average government...
Research Briefing
We forecast a permanent hit to Singapore’s population after two consecutive years of contraction in which border closures restricted regular...
Research Briefing
Revisions in Q2’s national accounts showed the economy responding more strongly to exiting lockdown than initially thought. At the same...
Research Briefing
While the potential collapse of Chinese property firm Evergrande matters, it doesn’t signal a ‘Lehman moment’ that might spark global...
Research Briefing
Private bank credit contracted 2.7% in 2020 in Indonesia and continued to decline on a year-on-year basis through most of...
Research Briefing
Indian households have hoarded savings through the Covid crisis, although to a lesser extent than the rest of the world....
Research Briefing
Vaccine programs across the world are well underway and should enable a sustained and meaningful easing of restrictions in late-2021...
Research Briefing
We’ve raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.4%, following the full release of the Q2 national accounts....
Research Briefing
We expect above-average growth in the eurozone over the coming quarters given the ample pent-up demand in the aftermath of...
Research Briefing
The latest money and credit data suggested caution on the part of consumers. Unsecured lending flatlined in July and households’...
Research Briefing
Bank of England MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe recently highlighted how the UK’s growing wealth will continue to put a damper...
Research Briefing
Concerns have risen about financial market risks, centring around elevated asset valuations and high corporate debt. A lack of corporate...
Research Briefing
The flash release estimates that GDP expanded 2.2% in Q2, slightly better than our 2.1% estimate, pushing the Danish economy...
Research Briefing
Business failures in Japan have been stemmed thanks to massive government and bank liquidity support. However, there’s mounting concern regarding...
Research Briefing
President-elect Pedro Castillo will struggle to pass legislation in Peru’s fragmented Congress, meaning the proposals that markets most worry about...
Research Briefing
Canadian Households accumulated C$184bn in gross excess savings between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021. That pool likely expanded as tighter...
Research Briefing
Although none of the big four central banks have started tapering their QE programmes yet, monetary aggregates are being pinched...
Research Briefing
Due to ongoing pandemic-related spending needs, we now expect Indonesia’s fiscal deficit will narrow to 3% of GDP only by...
Research Briefing
A shift to a new policy regime with much higher and more volatile inflation is a possibility that can’t be...
