Research Briefing | Nov 3, 2021

Higher energy prices won’t derail the global recovery

Global - Higher energy prices won’t derail the global recovery

The global recovery from the pandemic will be dented but not derailed if high energy prices persist throughout 2022, our modelling finds. In an extreme scenario where oil, gas and coal prices remain elevated indefinitely, global growth would still be 4.0% and 2.8% in 2022 and 2023 respectively, knocking 0.5ppts and 0.7ppts off our baseline forecast.

What you will learn:

  • We find that while some economies would suffer sizeable GDP impacts, the global impact is more moderate.
  • Equities and bonds would take a sizeable hit however, as growth slows
  • While we don’t see the recovery in global GDP being
    derailed by higher energy prices, financial markets would
    feel the effects much more keenly
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