Eurozone | Inflation hits all consumers – just not evenly
Eurozone headline inflation has risen substantially, with underlying pressures becoming more broad-based. But we think the impact on consumer spending, the main driver of the recovery, will be relatively benign. Our latest forecast sees a 0.3ppt drag on consumption in 2021 and 2022.
What you will learn:
- Consumer confidence and expected spending plans remain strong in the face of rising prices, and some of the consumption may simply be rerouted into available outlets or delayed.
- Current high inflation could produce a lasting drag on consumption if it were to become embedded in households’ expectations, as elevated inflation expectations and uncertainty are detrimental to spending.
- Higher-income households hold most of the excess savings that will drive the consumption boost to growth.
Africa Watchlist 2024: Devaluations, coups, and green hydrogen
Next year holds promise for the dawning of a new industry in Africa and somewhat of a commercial renaissance taking place in Kenya – East Africa’s economic anchor. Our watchlist for 2024 also foregrounds major currency devaluations in Ethiopia and Egypt and a strong probability of coups d’état in Cameroon and Tunisia. We expect support for the African National Congress (ANC) to drop below 50% in South Africa's general elections, but that coalitions with smaller parties will allow the ruling party to cling to power.Find Out More
Capital catalysts – Funding development when budgets are tight in Africa
In this presentation deck, we grappled with some of the Africa’s most pressing issues for 2024 and beyond. We explored Africa’s alternative funding strategies during challenging times, examined the continent’s growth hotspot, and unpacked South Africa’s political economy in the lead up to the general elections in 2024.Find Out More