Research Briefing
We think risk assets will underperform in 2024. We map out the implications of our key 2024 global macro themes...
Japan
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Research Briefing
More market participants appear to have become confident that the wage-driven inflation is real, which will encourage the Bank of...
Research Briefing
Idiosyncrasies in recent Asian trade data suggest that country-specific factors are becoming more influential and causing some countries' exports to buck cyclical trends. If that continues, the fortunes...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left short- and long-term policy rates unchanged at -0.1% and around 0%, respectively, at the...
We've recently revised up our forecasts for US and UK bond yields in the long term by 50 basis points;...
Research Briefing
The divergence in yield curves across markets has been notable, with most experiencing significant upward shifts in the last two...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained the policy rates at its September meeting, following a tweak in its yield curve...
Research Briefing
China's weak economic activity amid a housing correction has led many investors to draw comparisons with Japan's balance sheet recession...
Research Briefing
As food tends to be purchased often and account for a large part in the consumption basket – 22% in...
Research Briefing
Despite today's (28th July) surprise tweak to YCC policy, we continue to believe that Governor Ueda is determined to avoid...
Research Briefing
We think that a dissaving-driven consumption boom is unlikely to happen in Japan. Excess savings accumulated during the pandemic, in our view, is smaller...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left short-term policy rates at -0.1% and long-term rates at around 0% at today's policy meeting. With...
Research Briefing
We project Japan's CPI inflation will slow in H2 as import costs trend downward. The current record price passthrough is unsustainable given sluggish demand and firms' weak pricing power.
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left monetary policy unchanged at its first meeting under Governor Kazuo Ueda. Lower global yields...
Research Briefing
We have revised up our long-term wage and inflation projections based on a larger impact from structural labour shortages due...
The late December announcement of China’s intention to re-open its borders for travel took the international community by surprise, with...
Research Briefing
At Governor Kuroda's final policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left short-term policy rates at -0.1% and long-term rates at around 0%. Despite mounting...
Research Briefing
In sizing the macro impact of recent US semiconductor export controls on China, we estimate a near-term drag of around...
Research Briefing
Japan's structural labour shortage has deepened. While it may not result in a wage-inflation spiral now, labour scarcity will put...
Aside from Malaysia's BNM meeting and a host of CPI data this week, the closely-watched "Two Sessions" political event will be held in China, trade data from China...
