Research Briefing
The UK is set for a leadership change, with Andy Burnham likely stepping in. Key economic challenges await, impacting fiscal...
Financial markets
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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy rate from 0.75% to 1% on June 16 despite the uncertainty around...
Research Briefing
We’ve raised our end-2026 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield forecast to 2.8% from 2.5%. The prospect of higher inflation...
Research Briefing
Despite the continued uncertainty around the Middle East conflict, we now expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise its...
Bonds are under pressure from inflation and political instability, while equity markets show modest gains amid rising oil prices and...
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve is considering a balance sheet reduction, facing challenges that could impact financial stability and funding markets.
Research Briefing
Market stability is affected by ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices. Key economic indicators are on the horizon, influencing...
Research Briefing
Treasury yields may steepen after Middle East tensions ease, but persistent inflation and structural pressures could keep long-term rates elevated.
The BoJ is edging toward another rate hike—but timing is everything. Inflation is rising, the yen is weakening, and global...
Research Briefing
Private credit risks are rising, but limited spillovers and lower leverage reduce the threat to broader financial stability.
Treasury yields declined and risk sentiment improved as ceasefire hopes lifted markets, but uncertainty around Iran talks persists. Can this...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its policy rate at 0.75% at its March meeting. We now project the central...
Research Briefing
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) landslide election victory on Sunday doesn't change our expectation of a primary fiscal deficit...
Research Briefing
In our upcoming February forecast update, we'll stick to our expectation of a primary fiscal deficit of 2%-3% of GDP...
Research Briefing
Despite the new government's 2026 budget being slightly more timid than anticipated, we don't plan major changes to our outlook....
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its policy rate at 0.75% at its January meeting. Although our current baseline expects...
Research Briefing
Japanese government bond yields have surged over the past few weeks. Here, we answer the most frequently asked questions about...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 0.25ppts to 0.75% at its meeting on Friday, which the dovish...
Research Briefing
We've changed our fiscal outlook for Japan in our December forecast round. We now expect the new government to set...
The Budget on November 26 will be a key test of market confidence in the UK government's fiscal approach. If...
