Research Briefing
We think risk assets will underperform in 2024. We map out the implications of our key 2024 global macro themes...
Eurozone
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Research Briefing
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and...
Research Briefing
We expect widespread declines in inflation and interest rates in 2024 across advanced economies. A key differentiator, however, is that...
Research Briefing
We expect weak consumer spending in the eurozone to persist throughout 2023 and into early 2024. Consumption has mainly been...
One of our key macro calls for 2024 is our view that eurozone inflation will be lower than what the...
Research Briefing
We expect eurozone inflation will fall below the European Central Bank's target in H2 2024. This is one of our...
As term premia reprice higher, a modest increase in duration is warranted, however, we think the opportunities lie at the...
Research Briefing
Several cyclical and structural headwinds have been a drag on eurozone industry recently and are tilting near-term risks to our...
Research Briefing
Our estimates suggest that the surge in aggregate bank profitability may continue in the near term, but the outlook remains...
Research Briefing
We expect eurozone house prices will continue to slide through 2023 following back-to-back declines in Q1 2023 and Q4 2022....
Research Briefing
We think that eurozone and US REIT prices will rise in H2 as inflation falls and interest rates peak. In...
Research Briefing
We estimate that the ECB's job of taming elevated inflation will feature an unfavourable trade-off due to the uneven sectoral...
Research Briefing
Eurozone central banks became unprofitable last year, and near-term operational losses are likely to persist as banks exit the accommodative...
Research Briefing
We think eurozone households will be reluctant to tap into the €1tn (8% of GDP) stock of savings accumulated during...
Research Briefing
The Czech National Bank again kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% for a sixth consecutive time at the meeting today. This was...
Research Briefing
The government's announcement that the country's oil output will be reduced by 0.5 mn b/d in March is not a...
Research Briefing
A string of positive high-frequency data and an upside surprise in the flash GDP estimate for Q4 2022 have prompted...
Research Briefing
The IMF's calendar-year forecast for global GDP growth in 2023 to slow only marginally amounts to an assessment that the...
Research Briefing
France has dodged soaring price pressures better than its eurozone peers, but we think its inflation will fall more slowly.
Research Briefing
Long-term forward rates have risen markedly in the US, eurozone, and UK over the past year, and now stand well...
