Russian government announces oil production cut as expected
The government’s announcement that the country’s oil output will be reduced by 0.5 mn b/d in March is not a surprise. The amount of the reduction is at the lower bound of the range mooted back in December after the first phase of the EU oil embargo came into force.
We have updated our 2023 oil production forecast taking those signals into account. It sees a reduction of 6.8% in Russia’s oil output and leaves room for a further moderate decrease that is likely to occur in Q2.
FOMC minutes: Policymakers flex, markets not impressed
We were a little surprised that Fed officials had not pushed back harder against market expectations for aggressive rate cuts this year, but perhaps they wanted to let the minutes from the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee do the work.Find Out More
A weaker dollar hinges on better global growth prospects
The dollar will continue to be supported by a high carry and the relative resilience of the US economy. Even the recent loosening of financial conditions – itself based on the pullback in yields and a more flexible Fed – have only partially dented the USD bullish trend.Find Out More
Disinflation will force ECB to cut rates earlier than expected
One of our key macro calls for 2024 is our view that eurozone inflation will be lower than what the market and what the ECB expects.Find Out More