Research Briefing
We now expect the long-run nominal neutral policy rate – i.e., the rate at which the economy is in equilibrium...
Economic recovery
Filter content
Tag
Region
Research Briefing
President-elect Pedro Castillo will struggle to pass legislation in Peru’s fragmented Congress, meaning the proposals that markets most worry about...
Research Briefing
The spread of the Delta coronavirus variant appears to have usurped inflation as the key concern. The Delta strain will...
Research Briefing
Our analysis of key economic indicators suggests on balance the economy is in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle....
Research Briefing
Our estimates suggest that house prices in advanced economies may be around 10% overvalued versus long-term trends, albeit with considerable...
Research Briefing
Following record declines in 2020, we forecast strong 6.1% pa APAC GDP growth over the next two years. Nonetheless, the...
Research Briefing
Progress in passing the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and official adoption of the Nafex rate are two significant policy steps...
Research Briefing
Midwestern and Southern state labor market recoveries are still outpacing the rest of the country. Labor demand has strengthened most...
Research Briefing
Concerns within markets about the impact of the Delta variant on the economy is in our view warranted. We have...
Research Briefing
A string of new Covid-19 outbreaks is weighing on the APAC region’s economic recovery. Among Asia’s developed economies, the case...
Research Briefing
Although none of the big four central banks have started tapering their QE programmes yet, monetary aggregates are being pinched...
Research Briefing
Enhanced US unemployment benefits are discouraging only a small share of unemployed workers from finding jobs. The disincentive to work...
Research Briefing
A shift to a new policy regime with much higher and more volatile inflation is a possibility that can’t be...
Research Briefing
Our Latin America Recovery Tracker (LART) fell slightly (-0.7pts) during the week ending June 18, following two consecutive weekly gains....
Research Briefing
The Colombian economy is finally showing hints of an inflation build-up, with monthly CPI rising above its seasonal average in...
Research Briefing
Our US Recovery Tracker started June with a bang, rising a strong 1.2ppts to 96.1 in the week ended June...
Research Briefing
Talk of US labor shortages is everywhere. But rather than a shortage, we see a transitory mismatch between the supply...
Research Briefing
The Canada Recovery Tracker (CRT) dipped 0.1ppt to 90.9 in the week ended May 28, its first decline in five...
Research Briefing
The authorities’ decision to eschew lockdowns in the last 12 months has led to a steady return of mobility and...
Research Briefing
With the spread of Covid-19 in the US slowing considerably and vaccinations continuing at a healthy pace, consumers are gradually...
