US | Enhanced benefits aren’t the labor market’s top problem
Enhanced US unemployment benefits are discouraging only a small share of unemployed workers from finding jobs. The disincentive to work is greatest among lower-wage workers in states where the combination of emergency and regular unemployment benefits are the highest relative to prevailing wages.
What you will learn:
- An increase in the number of people receiving benefits doesn’t dramatically weaken job-search activity, and states offering high replacement wages haven’t experienced significantly slower job growth.
- In the current environment, low-wage workers in states that aren’t ending the federal emergency benefits early might be tempted to temporarily remain unemployed since they can earn 10%-20% more from unemployment benefits.
- Health conditions are the most important factor for labor market healing. Cross-correlation analysis indicates states loosen restrictions three to four weeks after a consistent downturn in new cases, which then allows labor markets to heal more quickly.
Firms must brace for higher ‘new normal’ construction material prices
New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the past couple of years. Project managers and investors should anticipate costs being at least 15-20% higher in 2024 and onwards than in 2021.Find Out More
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.Find Out More