One of our key macro calls for 2024 is our view that eurozone inflation will be lower than what the...
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The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is one of the central pillars of the EU’s Fit for 55 Agenda,...
Research Briefing
We expect eurozone inflation will fall below the European Central Bank's target in H2 2024. This is one of our...
As term premia reprice higher, a modest increase in duration is warranted, however, we think the opportunities lie at the...
Research Briefing
Most measures of inflation expectations eased in recent months, with the notable exceptions not as bad as they look. This...
Research Briefing
Businesses are increasingly hoping for early policy rate cuts to counter the potential fallout from banking system strains. Compared with...
Research Briefing
We estimate that the ECB's job of taming elevated inflation will feature an unfavourable trade-off due to the uneven sectoral...
Research Briefing
Eurozone central banks became unprofitable last year, and near-term operational losses are likely to persist as banks exit the accommodative...
Research Briefing
The recent banking sector turmoil could trigger a chain reaction of events that plunges the global economy into recession. However,...
Research Briefing
The ECB sent a clear and balanced message at its meeting this week despite the heightened market stress caused by...
Research Briefing
A string of positive high-frequency data and an upside surprise in the flash GDP estimate for Q4 2022 have prompted...
Research Briefing
Positive developments in energy markets mean the risk of a sharp downturn in the eurozone during the winter has diminished...
Research Briefing
Though a correction in values is firmly underway for European commercial real estate markets, we believe the worst is yet...
Looking into 2023, developers and investors have to assess conflicting pressures to construction costs, rising interest rates, and falling capital...
Research Briefing
Central banks around the world are raising interest rates and shrinking balance sheets, but financial conditions are not under enough...
Research Briefing
Anything but a 75bps hike of the ECB's key policy rates after next week's council meeting would be a big...
Research Briefing
Although the risk of hard energy rationing has diminished, demand destruction triggered by the surge in energy prices has led...
Research Briefing
We have long been expecting a dovish pivot from the ECB at the turn of the year as supply-driven core...
Research Briefing
The minutes from the July ECB meeting, when the bank ended the period of the negative interest rates in the...
Our modelling suggests incorporating owner-occupied housing costs would lower eurozone headline inflation from Q3 2022 by 0.3ppts, with negative contributions...
