Research Briefing | Jan 9, 2023

Eurozone: No winter crash for the euro area

Positive developments in energy markets mean the risk of a sharp downturn in the eurozone during the winter has diminished greatly.

What you will learn:

  • The combination of favourable weather, effective policy action, and behavioural shifts by industry and consumers means that the energy situation in Europe is much more positive than feared.
  • Quickly diminishing risks of gas rationing mean a severe downturn has become unlikely, while the fall in energy prices combined with the various government schemes designed to ease the impact on retail prices is finally allowing inflation to moderate, boosting confidence and real incomes.
  • But the region’s economic resilience provides the ECB with the perfect cover to continue raising rates aggressively in the near term, especially as core inflation looks unlikely to fall quickly.
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