In the media | 08 Jun 2023

Nikkei Asia: Pay in Japan is finally rising, but this won’t boost growth much

Norihiro-Yamaguchi

Norihiro Yamaguchi

Senior Economist

Tokyo, Japan

“Rising wages in Japan look set to have a limited impact on inflation and, more importantly, on economic growth in the coming years, contrary to the hopes of Kishida and Abe.” – Norihiro Yamaguchi, Senior Economist, and Makoto Tsuchiya, Assistant Economist at Oxford Economics, share an op-ed for Nikkei Asia to discuss Japan’s higher wages and its impact on inflation and economic growth.

Read the op-ed below:

Pay in Japan is finally rising, but this won’t boost growth much

To download our latest reports for the Japan, please check Resource Hub – Oxford Economics.

You may be interested in

Post

Trump policies provide tailwinds for industries, with exceptions in Japan

We expect the impact of Trump policies will be a net positive for Japan. The boost from higher import demand due to expansionary fiscal policies will likely overwhelm the adverse impact of targeted tariffs on Japan. The US is Japan's biggest goods export destination, accounting for 20% of total. Most traded items such as machinery and automotives are set to benefit from higher investment demand and consumer spending.

Find Out More

Post

Japan expects mixed impacts from Trump’s second presidency

We've adopted our "limited Trump scenario" as our baseline forecast for Japan. We now assume that the US will impose targeted tariffs on Japan's exports, among several other economies. We think these measures will have a limited impact on overall growth, but globally higher trade barriers are likely to hit Japanese manufacturers' profitability and financial markets. In addition, there is a non-negligible risk that Trump could implement even stricter tariffs.

Find Out More

Post

Japan’s BoJ outlook update – Rate hike is now more likely in January

We now believe that the Bank of Japan will wait until January to hike the policy rate. We previously assumed a 60% chance of a hike at the meeting on December 19, but recent media reports signal that more board members will likely prefer to wait to see more data to confirm the momentum of wage-driven inflation and US policy developments.

Find Out More