Consulting Report
31 Jan 2024

Insight Forecast: Gain insights into the North American construction market

In partnership with ConstructConnect

Construction Starts Forecast: Spring 2024

Within both the US and Canada, construction is a key sector that contributes significantly to their respective economies by providing employment to workers and supporting smaller businesses. Directly, construction accounts for 4% of GDP in the US and 7.5% of GDP in Canada, although sector dynamics vary considerably by both region and type of structure. In the immediate aftermath of Covid-19, residential construction spending grew strongly but has since been hit by the impact of higher interest rates on mortgages. Nonresidential building has been a mixed bag since the end of the pandemic; issues around overcapacity and high vacancy rates have weighed on commercial sectors such as offices, hotels, retail, and warehouses. In contrast, factory building has charged forward with several mega-projects started in strategic sectors, such as semiconductors, EV and battery factories, and energy. US engineering construction has also powered ahead since the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in November 2021, with various roadwork, power infrastructure, and civil projects (including gas pipelines, railways, and tunnels) have been particularly robust in recent years.

However, construction dynamics are currently shifting. Interest rates are expected to come down, albeit gradually with impacts on residential building and commercial property. In addition, new building is likely to fall from its current level, despite the large projects in the pipeline for manufacturing, and medium-term trends like green investment may also have an impact—all of which contribute to the overall outlook. It is therefore important to take a forward-looking view; every quarter, Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect produce forecasts for US and Canadian construction starts as part of ConstructConnect’s Insight Forecast. These forecasts include 34 building categories in the US and 23 categories in Canada, and the US and Canada national and regional data segmented by state, MSA (CMA), and county level. With these changes in the market dynamics, prudent forecasts help businesses to make informed decisions, and ultimately help support the wider economy.

For more information on ConstructConnect’s Insight Forecast product, click below.

The experts behind the research

Our Industry Consulting team are among the world’s leading analysts of a variety of industrial sectors. They combine their expert insight with our state-of-the-art economic models and tools to answer the crucial questions facing our clients.

Abby Samp

Director, Industry Subscription Services

Sebastien Tillett

Economist

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