Published at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos, this report explores three possible scenarios for how the Ukraine war could play out over the coming year, modelling the impact of each scenario on the Eurozone economy.
Before the war, the lack of material supplies, breakdowns in logistics and inflationary pressures were already undermining the economic rebound in Europe, with resurging demand and precautionary hoarding overwhelming supply chains.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has aggravated the situation. While before the war some kind of supply chain normalisation was expected in the second half of 2022, we now don’t expect this to happen before 2023, perhaps not even until 2024, depending on how the war evolves.
This report also highlights two more profound and longer-term challenges resulting from the pandemic and the war:
- Energy security, as European economies need to address their heavy reliance on oil and gas supplies while accelerating their net-zero agenda
- Talent mismatches as a result of ageing populations, evolving employee expectations, and changes in demand for skills
About the team
Our macro consulting team are world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. Lead consultants on this project were:
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Oxford, United Kingdom
Lloyd Barton is an Associate Director in the EMEA Macroeconomic Consultancy division. His areas of specialism include macro forecasting & scenario analysis, international trade, banking & financial markets, real estate, and commercial advisory for infrastructure transactions. Lloyd has managed large-scale economic consulting projects across the world for a broad variety of clients, including HSBC, Prudential Financial, AustralianSuper, Baker McKenzie, The Maersk Group, Accenture and EY.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2009, Lloyd worked as a Principal Researcher in the Financial Stability Department of Canada’s central bank. He has also previously worked as a Senior Economist at the UK’s Financial Services Authority, as well as the economics practice of PricewaterhouseCoopers. Lloyd holds degrees in Economics from the Universities of Cambridge and Warwick.
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