Trade is already one of the hardest-hit US sectors in the coronavirus crisis and faces major risks depending on the path of the pandemic in our GSS scenarios. While an escalation in tariffs would have a noticeable impact on GDP, trade would be hurt much worse. If markets react sharply to the new tariffs, with equities retracing March lows, trade activity could see its recovery delayed by almost two years, and the impact would persist well into the medium term.
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