Ungated Post | 14 Aug 2020
Chart of the week: US: Total trade under different scenarios

Innes McFee
Managing Director of Macro and Investor Services

Trade is already one of the hardest-hit US sectors in the coronavirus crisis and faces major risks depending on the path of the pandemic in our GSS scenarios. While an escalation in tariffs would have a noticeable impact on GDP, trade would be hurt much worse. If markets react sharply to the new tariffs, with equities retracing March lows, trade activity could see its recovery delayed by almost two years, and the impact would persist well into the medium term.
Tags:
You may be interested in

Post
Australia’s CAPEX falters in Q1, with cost inflation to test activity
Private new capital expenditure fell 0.3% q/q in Q1 2022, led lower by a fall in buildings and structures investment. The weak result is in part due to the impact of Omicron on labour availability, and the postponement of construction activity in flood affected areas. Machinery & equipment volumes rose in the quarter.
Find Out More
Post
LandAid’s 10K Challenge
Yesterday, members of Oxford Economics joined LandAid’s 10k run in Regents Park London to raise awareness and funds for young people experiencing homelessness.
Find Out More
Post
Anchors away – RBA change course and raise rates
The RBA has opted to raise the cash rate target to 0.35%. For some time, the RBA identified faster wage growth as its trigger for raising rates. Official data sources have provided no new information on this front over the past month. But the board has put their faith in information from the RBA business liaison program that wage growth is picking up.
Find Out More