In 2024 we expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a modest acceleration in GDP growth in the second half. In effect, the Fed will pull off a “soft-ish” landing. Inflation will continue to fall but at a much more gradual pace than in 2023 driven by a gradual loosening of labor market conditions. This will prompt the Fed to start easing policy toward the end of the year, but rates will be higher for longer than current market pricing. Beyond these headlines, three themes will be key to shaping the economy in 2024.
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