Duncan Campbell 
Renewed disruption to Middle East energy supplies and a more hawkish turn from central banks have darkened the outlook just as lenders finalise quarter-end expected credit loss calculations. We explain how our Q3 IFRS 9 and CECL scenarios capture these shifts. Our distribution-driven approach responds to changing conditions while keeping results stable from quarter to quarter.
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, Russian export restrictions and damaged refining capacity have pushed diesel crack spreads to record highs. Transport takes the first hit, but higher freight rates are passing costs on to food, metals and construction materials. Domestic crude and refining capacity can protect against shortages, but not against global price spikes.
Saudi Arabia’s economy faces challenges with oil export reductions and GDP
contraction, but foreign reserves may help stabilize the currency. Discover
more.
Oxford Economics’ 2026 Global Cities Index reveals which cities strike the best balance between housing affordability and quality of life. Singapore and Canberra lead the pack, while megacities like London, New York and Tokyo offer weaker “value” despite their enduring economic pull.
Escalating oil supply disruptions in the Middle East are reshaping economic
forecasts and prompting central banks to reconsider their strategies.
Explore the outlook for the European economy in 2027, including investment
trends, political shifts, and potential challenges ahead.
Generative AI could reshape the global economy through 2030 and beyond, but the scale of its impact remains highly uncertain. Oxford Economics uses three model “levers” — AI Exposure, AI Adoption and labour substitution — within its Global Economic Model to map out AI Breakthrough, AI Disruption and AI Disappointment scenarios, each with distinct implications for GDP growth, employment and productivity.
Explore the challenges facing France’s commercial real estate market, alongside
emerging opportunities in tourism and retail sectors. Discover more insights.
National PPP figures miss a crucial detail: cost-of-living differences within countries can be just as large as those between them. This piece explores how regional purchasing power parity adjustments reshape our understanding of living standards in cities from Washington, DC to Warsaw and Prague.
Explore the complex economic impact of AI on growth, labour productivity, and employment, with insights on varying scenarios.
As John Armitt argues in the Financial Times, Britain’s infrastructure problem isn’t ambition, it’s delivery. Oxford Economics convened senior executives from across the UK infrastructure and construction sector, in partnership with the French Chamber of Commerce and Société Générale, to discuss what’s really holding delivery back, and what it would take to unlock private capital at scale.
Climate and nature risks are becoming core to EU stress testing requirements, with regulators pushing banks beyond isolated exercises toward integrated, decision-ready frameworks. This article breaks down five key developments — from connecting macro scenarios to real business impacts, to preparing for the EBA’s 2027 stress test — shaping how financial institutions build resilience across Europe.
The Eurozone faces growth challenges due to a heatwave and drought, impacting
industries and food prices, while wildfires have a localized effect.
