Research Briefing | Apr 8, 2021

UK | London Monitor: London taking small steps on the path to recovery

Copy of The outlook for the world’s leading urban economies amid the global slowdown (1)

Our Oxford Economics Normality Tracker improved in March, reflecting a fall in Covid cases, thanks to the January lockdown.
This has occurred at a time when other European cities have been experiencing rising case numbers.

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Research Briefing | Apr 8, 2021

UK | London Monitor: London taking small steps on the path to recovery

Copy of The outlook for the world’s leading urban economies amid the global slowdown (1)

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Research Briefing | Apr 8, 2021

Australia | Recovery tracker edges up to pre-COVID level

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Our recovery tracker indicator has continued to improve through 2021 after a seasonal dip in January. The tracker has reached its pre-pandemic level, with strength in job advertisements and parts of discretionary spending broadly offset by ongoing weakness in mobility indicators, lockdown stringency measures and renewed volatility in financial markets.

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Research Briefing | Apr 8, 2021

Australia | Recovery tracker edges up to pre-COVID level

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Research Briefing | Apr 8, 2021

Sri Lanka | Some value remains despite recent bond rally

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Despite the early-2021 rally reducing the previously glaring undervaluation of Sri Lankan bonds, they remain below fair value based on our detailed assessment of default and non-default scenarios. A non-default scenario remains feasible. Procrastination has taken hold, and it may require an intensification of funding pressures to push Sri Lanka away from China and towards the IMF. At that point, a restructuring is possible but not inevitable; clear fiscal measures could limit or avoid bondholder pain.

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Research Briefing | Apr 8, 2021

Sri Lanka | Some value remains despite recent bond rally

Ipad Frame (24)-1

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Research Briefing | Apr 7, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: When is the vaccine tipping point?

Despite increasing numbers of new coronavirus cases globally, the possibility that more economies will enjoy both limited domestic restrictions and sustained low new case numbers is growing closer thanks to ongoing vaccination rollouts.

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Research Briefing | Apr 7, 2021

Global | Coronavirus Watch: When is the vaccine tipping point?

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Research Briefing

EM currencies gain as growth returns, but boom unlikely

Global | EM currencies gain as growth returns, but boom unlikely

Emerging market currencies tend to move with the economic cycle. Consequently, after losing ground in 2020, they have recently shown signs of recovery. While growth should support EM currencies during 2021, other currently positive factors may wane. We therefore think an EM currency boom is unlikely unless world growth and inflation surprise markedly to the upside.

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Research Briefing

EM currencies gain as growth returns, but boom unlikely

Global | EM currencies gain as growth returns, but boom unlikely

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Research Briefing

Latin America | How varying vaccine success will affect recoveries

Achieving collective immunity is a pre-condition for Latin American authorities to lift mobility restrictions permanently. We forecast that LatAm won’t reach that objective and pre-pandemic GDP levels until next year.

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Research Briefing

Latin America | How varying vaccine success will affect recoveries

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Research Briefing | Apr 2, 2021

UK | 2020 ended with some hopeful potents

UK 2020 ended with some hopeful potents

Q4’s national accounts revealed GDP falling not quite as far short of pre-Covid levels as previously believed. And a reversion of end-2020’s elevated saving ratio should support a strong, consumer-led, recovery as the economy reopens.
A net repayment of consumer credit in February meant households stayed in retrenchment mode, while the mini-boom in the housing market lost some steam. But signs of spring emerged in March’s decade-high manufacturing PMI.

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Research Briefing | Apr 2, 2021

UK | 2020 ended with some hopeful potents

UK 2020 ended with some hopeful potents

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Research Briefing | Apr 2, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker up again as momentum builds

US | Recovery Tracker up again as momentum builds Oxford Economics

The US Recovery Tracker rose 1.1ppts to 87 in the week ended March 19 on broad-based gains across five of the tracker’s six categories. The breadth and persistence of the gains over the past five weeks suggests growing momentum.

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Research Briefing | Apr 2, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker up again as momentum builds

US | Recovery Tracker up again as momentum builds Oxford Economics

Blog|1 April 2021

Working from home — but only for those who have the space?

Lawrence Harper-Scott

Senior Economist

The coronavirus pandemic has realigned home and work life across the world. Lockdowns have forced many employers and their workers to embrace remote working. But now, with vaccine rollouts underway, one of the most important questions is to what extent this will continue post-pandemic. It is a topic we have addressed before in a recent blog post and research briefing, and which we expect to be returning to in the future.

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Research Briefing | Apr 1, 2021

UK | House price inflation may soon be running on empty

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (28)

The unexpected resilience of house prices last year sets 2021 up to be another year of rising values. But unsupportive macro factors and the end of the stamp duty holiday lead us to suspect some correction may not be long in coming.

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Research Briefing | Apr 1, 2021

UK | House price inflation may soon be running on empty

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (28)

Despite a partial recovery in H2 2020, Canada’s GDP contracted by 5.4% last year with a secondary wave of COVID-19 infections slowing growth. All provinces are still in various stages of lockdown but after a slow start, vaccinations have accelerated. We assume that vaccinations in Canada will be complete by September, allowing pre-COVID-19 levels of activity by end-2021.

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Research Briefing | Mar 31, 2021

APAC | Cities Outlook: Expect a broad return to growth

Tentative recovery for major Asian cities

After an extraordinary downturn across Asian city economies in 2020 we expect a broad return to growth in 2021. But while many cities that contracted will recover to 2019 output levels by the end of this year, some that experienced particularly deep economic scarring or had weak growth momentum pre-pandemic will take longer.

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Research Briefing | Mar 31, 2021

APAC | Cities Outlook: Expect a broad return to growth

Tentative recovery for major Asian cities

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Research Briefing

US Regional Outlook: The economy is starting to accelerate but at varying rates across the US

An accelerated vaccine roll-out has raised optimism that social distancing measures will be relaxed in the coming months. The stimulus from the American Rescue Act will boost consumer spending over the first half of the year, meaning GDP should surpass Q4 2019 levels in the second quarter. The recovery in the labor market is likely to be more protracted, and could vary widely across US metros. Job growth in 2021 and 2022 is likely to be led by tourism-heavy cities which faced the deepest ruts in 2020; while GDP growth in the medium-term is likely to be led by metros with a tech-focus (e.g. San Jose, Seattle, and San Francisco).

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Research Briefing

US Regional Outlook: The economy is starting to accelerate but at varying rates across the US

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Research Briefing | Mar 31, 2021

Eurozone | Consumers are raring to spend

Ipad Frame_Eurozone-consumer-are-raring-to-spend

According to our analysis, eurozone consumers are raring to get spending as soon as restrictions are eased. Our modelling, based on a range of high-frequency data, shows that most of the current restraint on spending is being forced by the closure of spending outlets rather than being a voluntary response to uncertainty.

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Research Briefing | Mar 31, 2021

Eurozone | Consumers are raring to spend

Ipad Frame_Eurozone-consumer-are-raring-to-spend

We forecast that seven out of Europe’s top 30 cities will see their GDP return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021. The rest will have to wait until 2022, or in two cases, 2023. And of course, many uncertainties remain, with European governments continuing to battle to defeat the coronavirus.

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Research Briefing | Mar 30, 2021

Africa | Mapping the continent’s consumer spending landscape

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (27)

The total Cairenes consumer spending is estimated at $79.2bn in 2020, with Cairo also being one of the few cities that managed to record an increase in spending last year. Africa’s consumer landscape sees two other notable outliers, namely Johannesburg and Lagos, the commercial capitals of regional economic anchors South Africa and Nigeria.

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Research Briefing | Mar 30, 2021

Africa | Mapping the continent’s consumer spending landscape

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (27)

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Research Briefing

Mapping Africa’s consumer spending landscape

Urbanisation and pockets of increased socio-economic development have resulted in African cities becoming hotspots from a consumer spending perspective. This Research Briefing maps Africa’s consumer spending landscape by showing in which cities the most spending is taking place and exploring where we can expect to see the strongest growth in consumer spending over the next decade.

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Research Briefing

Mapping Africa’s consumer spending landscape

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Research Briefing

Global | Risk metrics reveal more optimism, more complacency

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An array of metrics points to improved global prospects, based on our latest
review of alternative gauges of economic risk. All suggest stronger – in some
cases, much stronger – 2021 growth than they indicated two months ago.

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Research Briefing

Global | Risk metrics reveal more optimism, more complacency

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (20)

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Research Briefing | Mar 30, 2021

Vaccine raises UK growth hopes, but industrial activity to be buffeted by Brexit

UK sector outlook Q1 2021

Our latest UK sector forecasts show that we expect services will outpace industrial production this year, in contrast to the sector dynamics other advanced economies.

What you will learn:

The weakness in industry primarily reflects the impact of the end of the Brexit transition period.
The UK-EU FTA will keep trade tariff- and quota-free for qualifying goods. But the new relationship has still introduced customs and regulatory barriers that will weigh on the competitiveness of industry.
Export-orientated and highly-regulated sectors such as autos and chemicals respectively will be among the worst hit.

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Research Briefing | Mar 30, 2021

Vaccine raises UK growth hopes, but industrial activity to be buffeted by Brexit

UK sector outlook Q1 2021

Our latest UK sector forecasts show that we expect services will outpace industrial production this year, in contrast to the sector dynamics other advanced economies.

What you will learn:

The weakness in industry primarily reflects the impact of the end of the Brexit transition period.
The UK-EU FTA will keep trade tariff- and quota-free for qualifying goods. But the new relationship has still introduced customs and regulatory barriers that will weigh on the competitiveness of industry.
Export-orientated and highly-regulated sectors such as autos and chemicals respectively will be among the worst hit.

If you wish to view more charts, please request a free trial here.

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Research Briefing

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Grounds for cautious optimism

A run of encouraging business surveys and the apparent successful reopening of the Israeli economy suggest that upside risks to our already above-consensus outlook may be rising.

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Research Briefing

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Grounds for cautious optimism

A run of encouraging business surveys and the apparent successful reopening of the Israeli economy suggest that upside risks to our already above-consensus outlook may be rising.