Eurozone | Consumers are raring to spend
According to our analysis, eurozone consumers are raring to get spending as soon as restrictions are eased. Our modelling, based on a range of high-frequency data, shows that most of the current restraint on spending is being forced by the closure of spending outlets rather than being a voluntary response to uncertainty.
What you will learn :
- Since the eurozone’s first lockdown, firms’ and households’ behaviour has adapted as understanding of the virus has improved. As a result, during the second wave most of the reduction in mobility has been driven by Covid-containment restrictions.
- We find that a bulk of the savings accumulated during the pandemic were forced rather than built as a precautionary buffer due to high job uncertainty.
- Evidence from credit card data also suggests that consumers will be quick to return to shops when restrictions are relaxed.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Japan’s tariff turbulence to flatten near-term growth
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Japan by 0.2ppts to 0.8% in 2025 and by 0.4ppts to 0.2% in 2026, reflecting higher US tariffs and heightened global trade policy uncertainty. We now forecast that Japan's economy will barely grow over 2025-2026 on a sequential basis.
Find Out More
Post
Growth outlook cut further for the Eurozone amid tariff turmoil
Given the unique nature of the hike in US tariffs, the size of these supply and demand shocks and the speed at which they are arriving make the precise economic implications particularly hard to pin down. Overall, however, we expect GDP growth in the US and world economy to slow sharply, but we don't anticipate recessions in either.
Find Out More