Eurozone | Consumers are raring to spend

According to our analysis, eurozone consumers are raring to get spending as soon as restrictions are eased. Our modelling, based on a range of high-frequency data, shows that most of the current restraint on spending is being forced by the closure of spending outlets rather than being a voluntary response to uncertainty.

What you will learn :

• Since the eurozone’s first lockdown, firms’ and households’ behaviour has adapted as understanding of the virus has improved. As a result, during the second wave most of the reduction in mobility has been driven by Covid-containment restrictions.
• We find that a bulk of the savings accumulated during the pandemic were forced rather than built as a precautionary buffer due to high job uncertainty.
• Evidence from credit card data also suggests that consumers will be quick to return to shops when restrictions are relaxed.