Research Briefing

Global | Risk metrics reveal more optimism, more complacency

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (20)

An array of metrics points to improved global prospects, based on our latest
review of alternative gauges of economic risk. All suggest stronger – in some
cases, much stronger – 2021 growth than they indicated two months ago.

What you will learn :

  • The improvement in business sentiment has been limited, however. Based on responses to our regular Global Risk Survey, businesses still expect a relatively moderate rebound this year.
  • With the exception of evidence from previous pandemics, all our other metrics point to a faster pace of recovery.
  • Greater optimism appears to be accompanied by greater complacency. We find that many other forecasters are attaching a small probability to material surprises to both growth and inflation.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

GCC: Key themes shaping city economies in the near term

For Gulf cities, the near-term outlook will be tied not only to the global macroeconomic backdrop, but also the progress of the diverse visions and strategies in the region. With the aim to diversify their economies and reduce the dependence on oil, Gulf states continue to invest in the non-oil economy and implement various reforms. That said, oil revenues remain key to funding diversification efforts.

Find Out More

Post

Indonesia rate cuts will bolster credit demand, with pockets of risks

We forecast Bank Indonesia will start cutting its policy rate in Q2, which will provide a cyclical tailwind for credit growth and consequently domestic demand, as lower real lending rates will help boost loan demand.

Find Out More