US Regional Outlook: The economy is starting to accelerate but at varying rates across the US
An accelerated vaccine roll-out has raised optimism that social distancing measures will be relaxed in the coming months. The stimulus from the American Rescue Act will boost consumer spending over the first half of the year, meaning GDP should surpass Q4 2019 levels in the second quarter. The recovery in the labor market is likely to be more protracted, and could vary widely across US metros. Job growth in 2021 and 2022 is likely to be led by tourism-heavy cities which faced the deepest ruts in 2020; while GDP growth in the medium-term is likely to be led by metros with a tech-focus (e.g. San Jose, Seattle, and San Francisco).
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Big shifts are underway in Russia-China trade
Data for Q3 on the volume of China's imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level. Rather than an indication that China's demand has peaked, this may be a sign that China is preparing for the Russian oil price cap recently agreed by G7 by shifting some of its purchases to the grey market.Find Out More
Levelling up is unlikely under the Liz Truss government
The government's levelling up ambition has probably been made more, not less, difficult by the new "Plan for Growth". Policies of lower taxes, less regulation, and a smaller state are unlikely to have much beneficial impact on long-term growth at the national level, let alone in those regions with long track records of underperformance.Find Out More