Global Outlook Conference Frankfurt
Oxford Economics invites you to attend our Global Outlook Conference to be held on Thursday 10th November 2022 at the JW Marriott Hotel Frankfurt.
Agenda
08:30 am Registration and coffee
09:00 am Global & European Macro Outlook
Oliver Rakau, Deputy Head Europe Macro
10:00 am Coffee break
10:15 am European Industry & Sector Outlook
Alexandra Hermann, Senior Economist, Industry
11:15 am Coffee break
11:15 am European Real Estate Outlook
Mark Unsworth, Associate Director, European Real Estate Economics
12:00 pm Interactive lunch and networking
Topics
Will the Fed and ECB remain hawkish in the looming recession?
- The global economy may narrowly avoid falling into recession thanks to resilient emerging markets. But aggressive monetary policy tightening, limited fiscal support and the raging energy crisis will drag most advanced economies into a downturn.
- Europe and especially Germany are at the eye of the storm with energy-intensive industrial sectors facing a severe recession and a deeply uncertain longer-term outlook due to the likely lasting shift in gas prices. But easing supply bottlenecks and sky-high backlogs will dampen manufacturers’ overall production cuts.
- Central bank decisions are exclusively driven by inflation for now. But that singular focus will be much harder to sustain, once economies are in recession and signs of inflation peaks are proliferating. We see a dovish pivot latest by Q1 2023.
What kind of correction and recovery do we expect for European real estate?
- Debt costs continue to soar across advanced economies, threatening to push commercial real estate markets into distress.
- As signs of financial dysfunction arise, policymakers’ desire to continue tightening until excess inflation is fully removed from the economy is starting to clash with the need to maintain financial stability.
- We believe that central banks and governments have the tools to avert the worst outcomes, but continued tightening does increase the risk of forced selling due to refinancing shortfalls, and dangerously low interest coverage ratios.
Venue
JW Marriott Hotel Frankfurt
Thurn-und-Taxis-Platz 2, 60313 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Speakers
Oliver Rakau
Deputy Head Europe, Macro
+49 69 9675 8664
Oliver Rakau
Deputy Head Europe, Macro
Frankfurt, Germany
Oliver is Oxford Economics’ Chief Germany Economist and Deputy Head of the European Macroeconomics team. He is based in its Frankfurt office and his research is focused on Germany, ECB policy and inflation. Prior to joining the company in 2017, he has been a senior economist for Deutsche Bank Research in Frankfurt for seven years working in its macroeconomic and industry teams. He holds a Master’s degree from London School of Economics.
Mark Unsworth
Associate Director, European Real Estate Economics
Private: Mark Unsworth
Associate Director, European Real Estate Economics
London, United Kingdom
Alexandra Hermann
Lead Economist, Asia Macro
+44 (0) 203 910 8042
Alexandra Hermann
Lead Economist, Asia Macro
London, United Kingdom
Alexandra is a Lead Economist on the Industry team where she is responsible for sectoral forecasts for the chemicals and pharmaceuticals industry and helps develop the team’s view on the global industrial outlook. She has also supported macroeconomic consulting projects such as developing scenario analyses for Accenture. Her role also involves contributing to bespoke industry consulting projects across a range of sectors such as chemicals, machinery, and energy.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Alexandra worked as an economic consultant for Cornerstone Research for over two years. At Cornerstone Research, she was involved in conducting qualitative research and quantitative analyses to support expert testimony in high-stakes litigation cases across a variety of sectors including energy, pharmaceuticals, and financial markets. Alexandra holds an MPhil in Economics from Oxford University and a BSc in Economics from the University of Mannheim. Alexandra is fluent in English and German.
Tags: