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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
May - June 2019

  • The global economy has seen a lacklustre start to 2019, entering its third slowdown since 2010. We expect global growth this year to be a little weaker than in 2018, at 2.8%, and then to stay stuck in a lower gear with the same pace of expansion in 2020.
  • Underlying financial conditions, a manufacturing upturn and stabilising activity in China are supportive of the outlook.
  • But with fiscal support set to wane and US-China trade relations again looking more fractious a rebound is unlikely and risks are tilted to the downside.
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  • In our latest US Executive #Podcast, OE's @BostjancicKathy and US chief economist @GregDaco discuss the outlook for the #USeconomy focusing on rising #trade tensions with #China and the implications for growth, household income, #inflation and #Fed policy: bit.ly/2K6E2KD

  • We launch a new way to manage currency risk with our FX Risk Tool, a composite measure of vulnerability to #currencycrisis. Our #FXRisk Tool measures risks of sharp currency falls and is a strong leading indicator of currency crises, our testing shows: bit.ly/30Fv1xZ

  • With a global slowdown dragging down #inflation, risks of #Japanification – economies sinking into a long run of low growth with low inflation or #deflation – is back. Most under threat, as in 2016, are countries on the #Eurozone periphery, some in Asia: bit.ly/2WXEdLC

  • Latest US #tariffs on China in the #tradewar will erase benefits of #tax cuts for most households in the #USeconomy, especially low- and middle-income families via @OxfordEconomics @TaxPolicyCenter : bit.ly/2X6MFZj

  • Organisational culture is critical to business performance influencing outcomes in collaboration, customer satisfaction and retention - and financial results. Our model developed with @GrantThornton tracks how key aspects of culture map into performance: bit.ly/2X1MG0u

  • US #Congress leaders are working towards a potential budget deal that would also include raising the #debtceiling. Very important is that if budget caps from the Budget Control Act of 2011 kick back in for FY2020, the drag on US growth would be 0.3ppt

  • It's very unlikely the “new #Brexit deal” from PM #May - a batch of sweeteners to various groups of MPs - will sway enough dissenters to win Withdrawal Agreement vote in 2 wks. So next major crunch point on Brexit will be a summer Tory leadership contest: bit.ly/2X1fcz5