The leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis

May - June 2019

  • The global economy has seen a lacklustre start to 2019, entering its third slowdown since 2010. We expect global growth this year to be a little weaker than in 2018, at 2.8%, and then to stay stuck in a lower gear with the same pace of expansion in 2020.
  • Underlying financial conditions, a manufacturing upturn and stabilising activity in China are supportive of the outlook.
  • But with fiscal support set to wane and US-China trade relations again looking more fractious a rebound is unlikely and risks are tilted to the downside.
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  • Latest US #tariffs on China in the #tradewar will erase benefits of #tax cuts for most households in the #USeconomy, especially low- and middle-income families via @OxfordEconomics @TaxPolicyCenter :

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  • US #Congress leaders are working towards a potential budget deal that would also include raising the #debtceiling. Very important is that if budget caps from the Budget Control Act of 2011 kick back in for FY2020, the drag on US growth would be 0.3ppt

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