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September/October 2018

  • Protectionism, tightening global liquidity and emerging market concerns remain key threats to the global economic expansion.
  • But while these factors may trigger slower growth in 2019 and beyond, there is little compelling evidence of significant loss of growth momentum.
  • We continue to expect global GDP growth to ease gently, from 3.1% this year to 2.8% in 2019, with weaker real income growth, household spending and investment in advanced economies.
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Latest Analysis

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  • RT @NKCAfrica: #SouthAfrica Headline CPI surprised to the downside with lower food prices and no sign of secondary price effects the main f…

  • RT @NKCAfrica: #Kenya review period expires without agreement on new IMF programme. Parliament’s decision to retain caps on interest rates…

  • The @guardian highlights our analysis of the fortunes of #G20 economies after #Lehman. While some Asia economies were unscathed, it took the US 3 yrs for GDP to return to pre-Lehman levels, the UK 5 years - and Italy has yet to return to the prior peak:

  • In this @WEF blog post, Naveen Menon, Cisco's ASEAN president, discusses OE's report with Cisco on how #technology will displace 28m #ASEAN workers' jobs by 2028, but will create new demand for workers, too, with #reskilling the key challenge:

  • Extreme house price valuations are concentrated in a group of relatively small economies, though valuations also look high - albeit below 2007 levels - in the UK and France:

  • In this @WEF blog post, Naveen Menon, Cisco's ASEAN president, discusses OE's report with Cisco on how #technology will displace 28m #ASEAN workers' jobs by 2028, but will create new demand for workers, too, with #reskilling the key challenge:

  • In full US-China #tradewar, OE modelling shows US and Chinese exports fall ~30% but three-quarters of China's $100bn export drop offset by rising exports to rest of world while RoW #exports to US rise $50bn with gains for Asian exporters: