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January 2019 / February 2019

  • Recent market upsets suggest heightened concern over a substantial global slowdown or even a recession.
  • We see this as an over-reaction to weakening data. Downside risks have risen, but our 2019 forecast is little changed at 2.7%, from 3% in 2018.
  • While tighter financial conditions will pinch growth, jobs market strength and weaker inflation, driven by cheaper oil, point to solid household spending. But sustained market weakness would risk global growth below post-crisis lows.
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  • #BankofJapan #BoJ left policy unchanged while board members again revised down inflation forecasts. Amid rising concern about global economic momentum and with a consumption tax hike in Oct'r, BoJ has no choice but to hold policy at least 'til Q2 2020:

  • RT @GregDaco: Tomorrow will be Day 33 of #GovernmentShutdown — longest ever! NABE @business_econ is hosting a great webinar to highlight e…

  • In #Canada, key factors that drove gains in house prices and household debt are unwinding. Interest rates are rising, tighter policy is constraining mortgage credit, and growth is slowing. Overstretched households remain a genuine risk:

  • RT @Accenture: With so much available data on the workforce, it’s important to remember who’s at the center of it—people. We’re sharing mor…

  • RT @jortpossel: .@Accenture is at #WEF19. Join us as we talk #ResponsibleAI, #FutureWorkforce and #InternetOfTrust. New blog post: https://…

  • In #China, weaker external and internal demand saw growth slow in Q4 to 6.4% y/y, from Q3's 6.5% and weakest since 1990. 2018 growth was 6.6%, after revised 6.8% in 2017. But pro-growth policy is gaining momentum. We see activity finding a floor arnd Q2:

  • Our 250 economists have updated our monthly forecasts - download a FREE EXEC SUMMARY: Market upsets suggest anxieties over a global slowdown but we see this as over-reaction to soft data. Our 2019 f/cast is little changed at 2.7%, from 3% in 2018.