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LATEST GLOBAL OUTLOOK
November/ December 2018

  • Global growth will ease from 3.1% this year to 2.8% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020. Recent equities sell-offs highlight financial market risks but we do not expect wider market declines.
  • We project 2019 US growth of 2.5%, buoyed by supportive fiscal policy, while the eurozone should see some year-end revival, paving the way for 1.7% 2019 growth, from 2% this year.
  • Broadly stable oil prices, easing inflation and resilient jobs markets support the outlook for next year.
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Latest Analysis

  • Nov 20 2018

    India: RBI and government strive to find common ground

    The crucial RBI board meeting on 19th November ended with signs that frictions between the central bank and the government (as represented by its nominees on the board), on management of RBI’s capital...

  • Nov 19 2018

    United States: Housing market will struggle, but not freefall in 2019

    Last week, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell noted that the US housing market now represents a smaller share of the economy. Following an expected contraction in residential activity in 2018, we ...

  • Nov 19 2018

    Prospects still good for growth remaining healthy in 2019

    Predictions of an imminent sharp global downturn are premature. While the global expansion has slowed since the start of the year, leading indicators continue to point to healthy growth across most ma...

  • Nov 17 2018

    United States: Macro Musings

     Headline readings on retail sales and consumer prices exaggerate the strength in consumer spending and inflation. Consumption is still solid but slowing, and inflation remains tame.

  • Nov 15 2018

    Early evidence on who’s winning the trade war

    Financial market moves since February suggest the US is getting the better of China in their trade war. But is this right? Actual evidence on trade flows is only just starting to emerge and is mixed&#...

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  • RT @GregDaco: US durable goods #orders plunged 4.4% in Oct but mostly due to 40% drop in volatile #aircraft. Core orders were flat. Headli…

  • RT @GregDaco: In @OxfordEconomics' latest US Economics #Podcast we discuss economic momentum heading into 2019, resilience in the labor mar…

  • RT @GregDaco: Despite a significant #stockmarket correction, consumer spending continues to grow around 2.5-3%. While broader correction…

  • RT @GregDaco: Despite a significant #stockmarket correction, consumer spending continues to grow around 2.5-3%. While broader correction…

  • RT @GregDaco: In @OxfordEconomics' latest US Economics #Podcast we discuss economic momentum heading into 2019, resilience in the labor mar…

  • Early evidence on who's winning #tradewar. For #China, surveys suggest it's likely trade will suffer considerably. US imports of items like solar panels, have slumped. US shock looks smaller. Bigger near-term losers may be China’s key Asian trade partners: bit.ly/2S1jXG6

  • We still think #inflation in the #USeconomy will accelerate only moderately in 2019. Yet we note some upside risks from companies exercising greater pricing power amid higher labor and capital costs: bit.ly/2S0PXKl