Research Briefing
The race to succeed long-term Chancellor Merkel and lead Europe’s largest economy is wide open. But we think Germany will...
Monetary policy
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 350 results
Research Briefing
The US Recovery Tracker carried the stalled progress we saw in the month of July into August, falling 0.3ppts to...
Research Briefing
The US Recovery Tracker plateaued in July after a five-month winning streak. While consumers and businesses continue to spend, peak...
Research Briefing
We now expect the long-run nominal neutral policy rate – i.e., the rate at which the economy is in equilibrium...
The construction sector did not escape the coronavirus-induced economic downdraft unscathed. Activity at the global scale fell 1.4% in 2020,...
Research Briefing
There have been long, multi-year cycles in the US dollar over the last 50 years, often linked to divergent monetary...
Research Briefing
Eurozone inflation is set to push above the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since 2018. But we think...
Research Briefing
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has played a key role in leading India’s pandemic policy response. While elevated inflation...
Research Briefing
Due to ongoing pandemic-related spending needs, we now expect Indonesia’s fiscal deficit will narrow to 3% of GDP only by...
Research Briefing
Despite a flattening of the yield curve and some position squaring of the socalled reflation trade, we believe our key...
Research Briefing
The Colombian economy is finally showing hints of an inflation build-up, with monthly CPI rising above its seasonal average in...
Research Briefing
The US economy is unlikely to experience an inflation regime shift. But after a decade of glacial price rises in...
Research Briefing
Beyond leaving monetary policy settings unchanged at meeting on 18th June, the Bank of Japan also extended the deadline of...
Research Briefing
Our June forecasts contained a substantial upward revision to growth in 2021 and 2022. We now forecast growth of 5.3%...
Research Briefing
The eurozone is heading into a strong economic rebound this month, driven by a services sector boom as restrictions are...
Research Briefing
Inflation is on the rise in Asia following hefty commodity price increases, and it may in some economies even increase...
Research Briefing
The public sector wage bill is one of South Africa’s largest line items on the expenditure side, accounting for roughly...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast sees a strong rebound in eurozone economic activity as vaccinations bring the pandemic under control, but this...
Research Briefing
The Canada Recovery Tracker (CRT) rose 1.4ppts to 87.4 in the week ended May 7 and is once again heading...
Research Briefing
Emerging Markets’ reputations for delivering on fiscal commitments has never been so important as it is now, given the need...
