Research Briefing | Aug 19, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker falters as the Delta variant spreads

US Recovery Tracker falters as the Delta variant spreads - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker carried the stalled progress we saw in the month of July into August, falling 0.3ppts to 96.4 in the week ended August 6. Economic momentum remains strong, but contractions in five of the six subcomponents signal that gains will be harder to come by as we move past peak growth.

What you will learn:

  • Greater consumer caution weakened demand and mobility, which fell to multiweek lows. Employment soured, production retrenched, and the health tracker fell on surging Delta variant contagion. Financial conditions loosened as stocks hit new records and interest rates remained close to historic lows.
  • Nearly all our State Recovery Trackers fell in the latest week. States in the South saw the sharpest drops, led by Louisiana, Florida, and Mississippi.
  • New Covid-19 cases have surged to 138k/day and hospitalizations and deaths have risen since early August. While a significant deterioration in the health situation is a downside risk to our outlook, rising inoculation rates offer protection against severe Covid cases and a new economic downturn. 

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