US | Recovery Tracker falters as the Delta variant spreads
The US Recovery Tracker carried the stalled progress we saw in the month of July into August, falling 0.3ppts to 96.4 in the week ended August 6. Economic momentum remains strong, but contractions in five of the six subcomponents signal that gains will be harder to come by as we move past peak growth.
What you will learn:
- Greater consumer caution weakened demand and mobility, which fell to multiweek lows. Employment soured, production retrenched, and the health tracker fell on surging Delta variant contagion. Financial conditions loosened as stocks hit new records and interest rates remained close to historic lows.
- Nearly all our State Recovery Trackers fell in the latest week. States in the South saw the sharpest drops, led by Louisiana, Florida, and Mississippi.
- New Covid-19 cases have surged to 138k/day and hospitalizations and deaths have risen since early August. While a significant deterioration in the health situation is a downside risk to our outlook, rising inoculation rates offer protection against severe Covid cases and a new economic downturn.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Food prices to bottom out in 2024, risks skewed to upside
Our baseline forecast is for world food commodity prices to register an annual decline this year, in aggregate, reducing pressure on food retail prices further downstream. However, we believe the risks to this forecast are overwhelmingly skewed to the upside.
Find Out MorePost
Battery raw material prices to recover
Battery raw materials prices bottomed out last quarter and we think a sustained recovery is looming. Midstream EV battery manufacturing activity has picked up again and inventories have returned to historical levels, suggesting upstream demand for raw materials will also bounce back.
Find Out More